Anaheim Ducks at Nashville Predators, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Ducks- Troy TerryGoals1
- Jackson LaCombeAssists2
- Troy TerryPoints2
Predators- Alexandre CarrierGoals1
- Michael McCarronAssists2
- Michael McCarronPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:15Denis Gurianov Goal (1) Poke, assists: Michael McCarron (5), Juuso Parssinen (4)5–3
- P317:02Philip Tomasino Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Michael McCarron (4), Roman Josi (24)5–2
- P39:45Alexandre Carrier Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Gustav Nyquist (23)5–1
- P33:16Radko Gudas Goal (6) Wrap-around, assists: Jackson LaCombe (6)5–0
- P23:05Troy Terry Goal (10) Deflected, assists: Adam Henrique (11), Urho Vaakanainen (7)4–0
- P117:37Mason McTavish Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Troy Terry (15), Pavel Mintyukov (17)3–0
- P114:11Frank Vatrano Goal (19) Deflected, assists: Jackson LaCombe (5), Alex Killorn (13)2–0
- P111:12Ryan Strome Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex Killorn (12)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P111:12Ryan Strome Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex Killorn (12)ANA 1 – 0 NSH · ANA 44% → 60% +16ANA 44% → 60%+16 pts
- P114:11Frank Vatrano Goal (19) Deflected, assists: Jackson LaCombe (5), Alex Killorn (13)ANA 2 – 0 NSH · ANA 61% → 75% +15ANA 61% → 75%+15 pts
- P117:37Mason McTavish Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Troy Terry (15), Pavel Mintyukov (17)ANA 3 – 0 NSH · ANA 77% → 88% +11ANA 77% → 88%+11 pts
- P23:05Troy Terry Goal (10) Deflected, assists: Adam Henrique (11), Urho Vaakanainen (7)ANA 4 – 0 NSH · ANA 90% → 96% +6ANA 90% → 96%+6 pts
- P33:16Radko Gudas Goal (6) Wrap-around, assists: Jackson LaCombe (6)ANA 5 – 0 NSH · ANA >99% → >99% +0ANA >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Predators 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NSH 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NSH 63%
- Fair odds
- NSH -131
- ANA +131 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ANA 2.9 – 3.3 NSH
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ANA | NSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1458 | 1505 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −9 | +1 | ANA: Lukas Dostal: team allows 0.23 more goals than with its usual starter (≈12 weighted starts) · NSH: Juuse Saros: team allows 0.03 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈23 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NSH +92 Elo | NSH 63.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NSH 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NSH 56.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| ANA | Stat | NSH |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 312.6 | Goals scored | 3.117th of 31 |
| 22nd of 313.4 | Goals allowed | 3.012th of 31 |
| 29th of 31−0.9 | Margin | +0.115th of 31 |
| 25th of 3147.5% | Shot share | 49.6%19th of 31 |
| 18th of 3190.0% | Save percentage | 90.5%14th of 31 |
| 23rd of 313–7 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 31 |
| 20th of 317–8 | Road vs home | 12–912th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
ANA 1–0 NSH in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.