Nashville Predators at Dallas Stars, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Predators- Filip ForsbergGoals2
- Ryan O'ReillyAssists2
- Filip ForsbergPoints2
Stars- Jason RobertsonGoals1
- Thomas HarleyAssists2
- Jason RobertsonPoints2
Scoring summary
- P310:21Jason Robertson Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Joel Hanley (2), Thomas Harley (10)4–3
- P37:30Filip Forsberg Goal (21) Wrap-around, assists: Ryan O'Reilly (20), Luke Schenn (4)4–2
- P32:42Filip Forsberg Goal (20) Backhand, assists: Gustav Nyquist (22), Ryan O'Reilly (19)3–2
- P219:14Jamie Benn Goal (8) Tip-In, assists: Thomas Harley (9), Jason Robertson (26)2–2
- P29:29Tyler Seguin Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: Matt Duchene (24), Mason Marchment (17)2–1
- P27:22Luke Evangelista Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Tommy Novak (13), Cole Smith (11)2–0
- P111:26Gustav Nyquist Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: none1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P27:22Luke Evangelista Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Tommy Novak (13), Cole Smith (11)NSH 2 – 0 DAL · NSH 65% → 81% +16NSH 65% → 81%+16 pts
- P29:29Tyler Seguin Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: Matt Duchene (24), Mason Marchment (17)NSH 2 – 1 DAL · DAL 18% → 34% +16DAL 18% → 34%+16 pts
- P219:14Jamie Benn Goal (8) Tip-In, assists: Thomas Harley (9), Jason Robertson (26)NSH 2 – 2 DAL · DAL 30% → 53% +24DAL 30% → 53%+24 pts
- P32:42Filip Forsberg Goal (20) Backhand, assists: Gustav Nyquist (22), Ryan O'Reilly (19)NSH 3 – 2 DAL · NSH 47% → 73% +26NSH 47% → 73%+26 pts
- P37:30Filip Forsberg Goal (21) Wrap-around, assists: Ryan O'Reilly (20), Luke Schenn (4)NSH 4 – 2 DAL · NSH 77% → 94% +17NSH 77% → 94%+17 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Stars 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL 59%
- Fair odds
- DAL -126
- NSH +126 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NSH 3.0 – 3.3 DAL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NSH | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1502 | 1518 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −16 | −4 | NSH: Kevin Lankinen: team allows 0.39 more goals than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · DAL: Scott Wedgewood: team allows 0.09 more goals than with its usual starter (≈14 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +63 Elo | DAL 58.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 55.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NSH | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 313.1 | Goals scored | 3.64th of 31 |
| 12th of 313.0 | Goals allowed | 3.115th of 31 |
| 16th of 31+0.1 | Margin | +0.59th of 31 |
| 18th of 3149.7% | Shot share | 50.2%15th of 31 |
| 14th of 3190.5% | Save percentage | 90.0%20th of 31 |
| 13th of 315–5 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 31 |
| 9th of 319–8 | Road vs home | 11–810th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NSH 0–1 DAL in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.