Anaheim Ducks at Florida Panthers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors FLA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Ducks- Alex KillornGoals2
- Frank VatranoAssists2
- Alex KillornPoints2
Panthers- Sam BennettGoals2
- Carter VerhaegheAssists1
- Sam BennettPoints2
Scoring summary
- OT0:48Alex Killorn Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Frank Vatrano (12), Cam Fowler (18)5–4
- P33:45Troy Terry Goal (11) Backhand, assists: Jackson LaCombe (7)4–4
- P214:58Jakob Silfverberg Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Sam Carrick (3)3–4
- P212:49Sam Bennett Goal (10) Slap Shot, assists: Matthew Tkachuk (30), Carter Verhaeghe (20)2–4
- P29:36Carter Verhaeghe Goal (23) Wrist Shot, assists: Brandon Montour (8), Aleksander Barkov (35)2–3
- P25:24Adam Henrique Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Frank Vatrano (11)2–2
- P119:56Alex Killorn Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Adam Henrique (13)1–2
- P117:35Sam Reinhart Goal (32) Backhand, assists: Niko Mikkola (10)0–2
- P18:29Sam Bennett Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Evan Rodrigues (20), Oliver Ekman-Larsson (14)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P18:29Sam Bennett Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Evan Rodrigues (20), Oliver Ekman-Larsson (14)ANA 0 – 1 FLA · FLA 57% → 71% +15FLA 57% → 71%+15 pts
- P25:24Adam Henrique Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Frank Vatrano (11)ANA 2 – 2 FLA · ANA 27% → 44% +18ANA 27% → 44%+18 pts
- P29:36Carter Verhaeghe Goal (23) Wrist Shot, assists: Brandon Montour (8), Aleksander Barkov (35)ANA 2 – 3 FLA · FLA 55% → 74% +19FLA 55% → 74%+19 pts
- P33:45Troy Terry Goal (11) Backhand, assists: Jackson LaCombe (7)ANA 4 – 4 FLA · ANA 21% → 46% +25ANA 21% → 46%+25 pts
- OT0:48Alex Killorn Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Frank Vatrano (12), Cam Fowler (18)ANA 5 – 4 FLA · ANA 48% → 91% +43ANA 48% → 91%+43 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Panthers 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- FLA 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- FLA 66%
- Fair odds
- FLA -134
- ANA +134 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ANA 2.9 – 3.3 FLA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ANA | FLA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1456 | 1532 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +5 | +7 | ANA: John Gibson: team allows 0.13 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈19 weighted starts) · FLA: Anthony Stolarz: team allows 0.17 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | FLA +113 Elo | FLA 65.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | FLA 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | FLA 57.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| ANA | Stat | FLA |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 312.6 | Goals scored | 3.117th of 31 |
| 26th of 313.5 | Goals allowed | 2.63rd of 31 |
| 29th of 31−0.9 | Margin | +0.66th of 31 |
| 26th of 3146.7% | Shot share | 55.7%2nd of 31 |
| 20th of 3189.9% | Save percentage | 91.3%5th of 31 |
| 27th of 312–8 | Last 10 | 8–23rd of 31 |
| 21st of 318–10 | Road vs home | 13–64th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
ANA 0–1 FLA in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.