Los Angeles Kings at Florida Panthers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors FLA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kings- Drew DoughtyGoals1
- Anze KopitarAssists1
- Drew DoughtyPoints1
Panthers- Sam ReinhartGoals1
- Sam ReinhartAssists1
- Sam ReinhartPoints2
Scoring summary
- OT4:59Sam Reinhart Goal (30) Backhand, assists: Aleksander Barkov (34), Sergei Bobrovsky (2)2–3
- P317:42Matthew Tkachuk Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Carter Verhaeghe (19), Sam Reinhart (23)2–2
- P219:39Drew Doughty Goal (8) Slap Shot, assists: Adrian Kempe (22), Anze Kopitar (23)2–1
- P210:58Sam Bennett Goal (8) Tip-In, assists: Eetu Luostarinen (4), Oliver Ekman-Larsson (13)1–1
- P16:17Trevor Moore Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Phillip Danault (15), Kevin Fiala (25)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P16:17Trevor Moore Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Phillip Danault (15), Kevin Fiala (25)LA 1 – 0 FLA · LA 45% → 60% +15LA 45% → 60%+15 pts
- P210:58Sam Bennett Goal (8) Tip-In, assists: Eetu Luostarinen (4), Oliver Ekman-Larsson (13)LA 1 – 1 FLA · FLA 34% → 54% +20FLA 34% → 54%+20 pts
- P219:39Drew Doughty Goal (8) Slap Shot, assists: Adrian Kempe (22), Anze Kopitar (23)LA 2 – 1 FLA · LA 47% → 71% +24LA 47% → 71%+24 pts
- P317:42Matthew Tkachuk Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Carter Verhaeghe (19), Sam Reinhart (23)LA 2 – 2 FLA · FLA 3% → 51% +48FLA 3% → 51%+48 pts
- OT4:59Sam Reinhart Goal (30) Backhand, assists: Aleksander Barkov (34), Sergei Bobrovsky (2)LA 2 – 3 FLA · FLA 50% → 100% +50FLA 50% → 100%+50 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Panthers 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- FLA 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- FLA 59%
- Fair odds
- FLA -126
- LA +126 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LA 3.0 – 3.3 FLA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LA | FLA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1511 | 1536 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +2 | +3 | LA: Cam Talbot: team allows 0.04 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈20 weighted starts) · FLA: Sergei Bobrovsky: team allows 0.08 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈22 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | FLA +62 Elo | FLA 58.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | FLA 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | FLA 55.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| LA | Stat | FLA |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 313.2 | Goals scored | 3.216th of 31 |
| 2nd of 312.5 | Goals allowed | 2.53rd of 31 |
| 4th of 31+0.7 | Margin | +0.66th of 31 |
| 2nd of 3155.9% | Shot share | 55.5%3rd of 31 |
| 5th of 3191.4% | Save percentage | 91.3%6th of 31 |
| 24th of 313–7 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 31 |
| 1st of 3111–5 | Road vs home | 12–54th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
LA 1–0 FLA in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.