Los Angeles Kings at Tampa Bay Lightning, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TB; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kings- Phillip DanaultGoals1
- Trevor MooreAssists2
- Trevor MoorePoints2
Lightning- Brandon HagelGoals1
- Brandon HagelAssists1
- Brandon HagelPoints2
Scoring summary
- OT2:03Nick Perbix Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Brandon Hagel (22)2–3
- P315:39Brandon Hagel Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Nick Perbix (10), Emil Martinsen Lilleberg (1)2–2
- P312:37Tyler Motte Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Michael Eyssimont (7)2–1
- P214:30Matt Roy Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Kevin Fiala (24), Trevor Moore (11)2–0
- P211:31Phillip Danault Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Jordan Spence (13), Trevor Moore (10)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P211:31Phillip Danault Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Jordan Spence (13), Trevor Moore (10)LA 1 – 0 TB · LA 47% → 67% +21LA 47% → 67%+21 pts
- P214:30Matt Roy Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Kevin Fiala (24), Trevor Moore (11)LA 2 – 0 TB · LA 69% → 85% +17LA 69% → 85%+17 pts
- P312:37Tyler Motte Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Michael Eyssimont (7)LA 2 – 1 TB · TB 2% → 16% +14TB 2% → 16%+14 pts
- P315:39Brandon Hagel Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Nick Perbix (10), Emil Martinsen Lilleberg (1)LA 2 – 2 TB · TB 9% → 51% +42TB 9% → 51%+42 pts
- OT2:03Nick Perbix Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Brandon Hagel (22)LA 2 – 3 TB · TB 51% → 95% +44TB 51% → 95%+44 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Lightning 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 52%
- Fair odds
- TB -119
- LA +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LA 3.0 – 3.3 TB
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LA | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1513 | 1496 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +3 | −2 | LA: Cam Talbot: team allows 0.07 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈20 weighted starts) · TB: Andrei Vasilevskiy: team allows 0.06 more goals than with its usual starter (≈15 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +13 Elo | TB 51.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 54.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| LA | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 313.2 | Goals scored | 3.312th of 31 |
| 2nd of 312.5 | Goals allowed | 3.525th of 31 |
| 3rd of 31+0.7 | Margin | −0.218th of 31 |
| 2nd of 3156.3% | Shot share | 49.4%20th of 31 |
| 5th of 3191.4% | Save percentage | 89.3%26th of 31 |
| 22nd of 314–6 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 31 |
| 1st of 3111–4 | Road vs home | 11–811th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.