Anaheim Ducks at Tampa Bay Lightning, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TB; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Ducks- Frank VatranoGoals1
- Cam FowlerAssists1
- Frank VatranoPoints1
Lightning- Steven StamkosGoals2
- Nikita KucherovAssists3
- Steven StamkosPoints3
Scoring summary
- P318:05Brandon Hagel Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Nicholas Paul (12), Nick Perbix (13)1–5
- P39:06Calvin de Haan Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: none1–4
- P214:47Steven Stamkos Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Nikita Kucherov (44), Darren Raddysh (11)1–3
- P213:20Frank Vatrano Goal (21) Slap Shot, assists: Cam Fowler (17), Ryan Strome (18)1–2
- P210:56Steven Stamkos Goal (17) Snap Shot, assists: Brayden Point (24), Nikita Kucherov (43)0–2
- P25:09Victor Hedman Goal (7) Slap Shot, assists: Steven Stamkos (23), Nikita Kucherov (42)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P25:09Victor Hedman Goal (7) Slap Shot, assists: Steven Stamkos (23), Nikita Kucherov (42)ANA 0 – 1 TB · TB 55% → 73% +18TB 55% → 73%+18 pts
- P210:56Steven Stamkos Goal (17) Snap Shot, assists: Brayden Point (24), Nikita Kucherov (43)ANA 0 – 2 TB · TB 74% → 88% +14TB 74% → 88%+14 pts
- P213:20Frank Vatrano Goal (21) Slap Shot, assists: Cam Fowler (17), Ryan Strome (18)ANA 1 – 2 TB · ANA 11% → 26% +14ANA 11% → 26%+14 pts
- P214:47Steven Stamkos Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Nikita Kucherov (44), Darren Raddysh (11)ANA 1 – 3 TB · TB 75% → 89% +14TB 75% → 89%+14 pts
- P39:06Calvin de Haan Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: noneANA 1 – 4 TB · TB 96% → >99% +3TB 96% → >99%+3 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Lightning 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 62%
- Fair odds
- TB -129
- ANA +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ANA 3.0 – 3.3 TB
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ANA | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1460 | 1500 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −8 | +1 | ANA: Lukas Dostal: team allows 0.19 more goals than with its usual starter (≈12 weighted starts) · TB: Andrei Vasilevskiy: team allows 0.02 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈17 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +84 Elo | TB 61.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 56.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| ANA | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 312.6 | Goals scored | 3.311th of 31 |
| 24th of 313.5 | Goals allowed | 3.523rd of 31 |
| 29th of 31−0.8 | Margin | −0.119th of 31 |
| 26th of 3147.0% | Shot share | 49.4%19th of 31 |
| 19th of 3189.9% | Save percentage | 89.3%26th of 31 |
| 23rd of 313–7 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 31 |
| 19th of 318–9 | Road vs home | 13–89th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.