New Jersey Devils at Tampa Bay Lightning, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TB; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Devils- Nathan BastianGoals1
- Erik HaulaAssists1
- Nathan BastianPoints1
Lightning- Luke GlendeningGoals2
- Nick PerbixAssists2
- Luke GlendeningPoints2
Scoring summary
- OT1:52Darren Raddysh Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Nikita Kucherov (41), Andrei Vasilevskiy (1)3–4
- P33:53Nathan Bastian Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: none3–3
- P216:54Jesper Bratt Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: John Marino (12), Tyler Toffoli (13)2–3
- P210:34Brayden Point Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: Nikita Kucherov (40), Nick Perbix (12)1–3
- P118:22Luke Glendening Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: none1–2
- P112:35Luke Glendening Goal (6) Backhand, assists: Nick Perbix (11), Austin Watson (1)1–1
- P17:42Dawson Mercer Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Erik Haula (12), Colin Miller (3)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P17:42Dawson Mercer Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Erik Haula (12), Colin Miller (3)NJ 1 – 0 TB · NJ 46% → 61% +15NJ 46% → 61%+15 pts
- P112:35Luke Glendening Goal (6) Backhand, assists: Nick Perbix (11), Austin Watson (1)NJ 1 – 1 TB · TB 38% → 54% +16TB 38% → 54%+16 pts
- P118:22Luke Glendening Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: noneNJ 1 – 2 TB · TB 54% → 70% +16TB 54% → 70%+16 pts
- P33:53Nathan Bastian Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: noneNJ 3 – 3 TB · NJ 22% → 48% +25NJ 22% → 48%+25 pts
- OT1:52Darren Raddysh Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Nikita Kucherov (41), Andrei Vasilevskiy (1)NJ 3 – 4 TB · TB 51% → 95% +44TB 51% → 95%+44 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Lightning 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 54%
- Fair odds
- TB -121
- NJ +121 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NJ 3.0 – 3.3 TB
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NJ | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1504 | 1498 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +4 | 0 | NJ: Vitek Vanecek: team allows 0.09 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈18 weighted starts) · TB: Andrei Vasilevskiy: team allows 0.01 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈16 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +26 Elo | TB 53.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 54.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NJ | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 313.6 | Goals scored | 3.312th of 31 |
| 27th of 313.6 | Goals allowed | 3.524th of 31 |
| 17th of 310.0 | Margin | −0.119th of 31 |
| 8th of 3151.7% | Shot share | 49.6%19th of 31 |
| 30th of 3188.7% | Save percentage | 89.3%26th of 31 |
| 13th of 315–5 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 31 |
| 2nd of 3112–6 | Road vs home | 12–89th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.