New Jersey Devils at Florida Panthers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors FLA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Devils- Erik HaulaGoals1
- Nico HischierAssists1
- Erik HaulaPoints1
Panthers- Sam ReinhartGoals1
- Brandon MontourAssists1
- Sam ReinhartPoints1
Scoring summary
- P319:41John Marino Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: none4–1
- P219:27Sam Reinhart Goal (31) Wrist Shot, assists: Matthew Tkachuk (29), Brandon Montour (7)3–1
- P23:51Erik Haula Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Nico Hischier (11)3–0
- P114:45Jesper Bratt Goal (16) Tip-In, assists: Michael McLeod (9)2–0
- P13:50Alexander Holtz Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Simon Nemec (6), Curtis Lazar (10)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P13:50Alexander Holtz Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Simon Nemec (6), Curtis Lazar (10)NJ 1 – 0 FLA · NJ 44% → 59% +15NJ 44% → 59%+15 pts
- P114:45Jesper Bratt Goal (16) Tip-In, assists: Michael McLeod (9)NJ 2 – 0 FLA · NJ 61% → 76% +15NJ 61% → 76%+15 pts
- P23:51Erik Haula Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Nico Hischier (11)NJ 3 – 0 FLA · NJ 79% → 90% +11NJ 79% → 90%+11 pts
- P219:27Sam Reinhart Goal (31) Wrist Shot, assists: Matthew Tkachuk (29), Brandon Montour (7)NJ 3 – 1 FLA · FLA 4% → 12% +9FLA 4% → 12%+9 pts
- P319:41John Marino Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: noneNJ 4 – 1 FLA · NJ 100% → 100% +0NJ 100% → 100%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Panthers 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- FLA 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- FLA 61%
- Fair odds
- FLA -128
- NJ +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NJ 3.0 – 3.3 FLA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NJ | FLA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1502 | 1538 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −1 | +4 | NJ: Nico Daws: team allows 0.02 more goals than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · FLA: Sergei Bobrovsky: team allows 0.09 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈23 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | FLA +76 Elo | FLA 60.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | FLA 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | FLA 56.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NJ | Stat | FLA |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 313.6 | Goals scored | 3.215th of 31 |
| 27th of 313.6 | Goals allowed | 2.52nd of 31 |
| 17th of 310.0 | Margin | +0.63rd of 31 |
| 7th of 3151.9% | Shot share | 55.5%3rd of 31 |
| 30th of 3188.6% | Save percentage | 91.4%5th of 31 |
| 12th of 315–5 | Last 10 | 8–23rd of 31 |
| 3rd of 3112–7 | Road vs home | 13–54th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NJ 0–1 FLA in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.