Philadelphia Flyers at St. Louis Blues, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors STL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Flyers- Scott LaughtonGoals1
- Cam AtkinsonAssists1
- Scott LaughtonPoints1
Blues- Brandon SaadGoals1
- Brayden SchennAssists2
- Brayden SchennPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:06Joel Farabee Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: none4–2
- P314:27Owen Tippett Goal (16) Backhand, assists: Travis Konecny (19), Morgan Frost (9)3–2
- P31:18Brandon Saad Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Brayden Schenn (12), Jordan Kyrou (20)2–2
- P219:53Ryan Poehling Goal (5) Batted, assists: Egor Zamula (9), Cam Atkinson (11)2–1
- P218:19Oskar Sundqvist Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Brayden Schenn (11), Scott Perunovich (9)1–1
- P21:03Scott Laughton Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Garnet Hathaway (2), Sean Walker (11)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P21:03Scott Laughton Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Garnet Hathaway (2), Sean Walker (11)PHI 1 – 0 STL · PHI 46% → 64% +18PHI 46% → 64%+18 pts
- P218:19Oskar Sundqvist Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Brayden Schenn (11), Scott Perunovich (9)PHI 1 – 1 STL · STL 30% → 53% +23STL 30% → 53%+23 pts
- P219:53Ryan Poehling Goal (5) Batted, assists: Egor Zamula (9), Cam Atkinson (11)PHI 2 – 1 STL · PHI 47% → 71% +24PHI 47% → 71%+24 pts
- P31:18Brandon Saad Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Brayden Schenn (12), Jordan Kyrou (20)PHI 2 – 2 STL · STL 28% → 53% +25STL 28% → 53%+25 pts
- P314:27Owen Tippett Goal (16) Backhand, assists: Travis Konecny (19), Morgan Frost (9)PHI 3 – 2 STL · PHI 49% → 88% +39PHI 49% → 88%+39 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Blues 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 53%
- Fair odds
- STL -120
- PHI +120 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 3.0 – 3.2 STL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1511 | 1495 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −5 | −5 | PHI: Carter Hart: team allows 0.14 more goals than with its usual starter (≈18 weighted starts) · STL: Joel Hofer: team allows 0.12 more goals than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +20 Elo | STL 52.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 54.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| PHI | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 312.9 | Goals scored | 2.925th of 31 |
| 8th of 312.8 | Goals allowed | 3.117th of 31 |
| 15th of 31+0.1 | Margin | −0.221st of 31 |
| 5th of 3153.8% | Shot share | 47.8%23rd of 31 |
| 12th of 3190.8% | Save percentage | 91.1%9th of 31 |
| 15th of 315–5 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 31 |
| 12th of 3112–10 | Road vs home | 12–79th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.