Philadelphia Flyers at Winnipeg Jets, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WPG; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Flyers- Cam AtkinsonGoals2
- Ryan PoehlingAssists1
- Cam AtkinsonPoints2
JetsScoring summary
- P22:52Cam Atkinson Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Morgan Frost (8), Cam York (10)2–0
- P114:47Cam Atkinson Goal (9) Tip-In, assists: Joel Farabee (19), Ryan Poehling (8)1–0
Turning points
The 2 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P114:47Cam Atkinson Goal (9) Tip-In, assists: Joel Farabee (19), Ryan Poehling (8)PHI 1 – 0 WPG · PHI 41% → 57% +17PHI 41% → 57%+17 pts
- P22:52Cam Atkinson Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Morgan Frost (8), Cam York (10)PHI 2 – 0 WPG · PHI 60% → 76% +16PHI 60% → 76%+16 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Jets 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- WPG 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WPG 66%
- Fair odds
- WPG -154
- PHI +154 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 2.8 – 3.4 WPG
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | WPG | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1505 | 1545 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | PHI on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +7 | +16 | PHI: Samuel Ersson: team allows 0.17 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈15 weighted starts) · WPG: Connor Hellebuyck: team allows 0.40 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈22 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WPG +114 Elo | WPG 65.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WPG 59.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WPG 60.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| PHI | Stat | WPG |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 312.9 | Goals scored | 3.214th of 31 |
| 9th of 312.9 | Goals allowed | 2.31st of 31 |
| 16th of 31+0.1 | Margin | +0.92nd of 31 |
| 5th of 3153.8% | Shot share | 51.4%12th of 31 |
| 12th of 3190.6% | Save percentage | 92.5%1st of 31 |
| 19th of 314–6 | Last 10 | 9–11st of 31 |
| 14th of 3111–10 | Road vs home | 14–75th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.