Philadelphia Flyers at Minnesota Wild, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Flyers- Joel FarabeeGoals2
- Travis KonecnyAssists2
- Joel FarabeePoints2
Wild- Ryan HartmanGoals1
- Ryan HartmanAssists1
- Ryan HartmanPoints2
Scoring summary
- OT3:36Joel Farabee Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Egor Zamula (8), Owen Tippett (11)4–3
- P310:56Owen Tippett Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Travis Konecny (18), Jamie Drysdale (6)3–3
- P39:31Tyson Foerster Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Scott Laughton (15), Sean Walker (10)2–3
- P34:38Matt Boldy Goal (15) Slap Shot, assists: Jake Middleton (9), Ryan Hartman (9)1–3
- P31:48Ryan Hartman Goal (13) Slap Shot, assists: Alex Goligoski (7), Zach Bogosian (4)1–2
- P23:37Joel Farabee Goal (13) Tip-In, assists: Travis Konecny (17), Sean Couturier (19)1–1
- P20:51Marcus Johansson Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Joel Eriksson Ek (13)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P20:51Marcus Johansson Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Joel Eriksson Ek (13)PHI 0 – 1 MIN · MIN 54% → 71% +17MIN 54% → 71%+17 pts
- P23:37Joel Farabee Goal (13) Tip-In, assists: Travis Konecny (17), Sean Couturier (19)PHI 1 – 1 MIN · PHI 29% → 47% +18PHI 29% → 47%+18 pts
- P31:48Ryan Hartman Goal (13) Slap Shot, assists: Alex Goligoski (7), Zach Bogosian (4)PHI 1 – 2 MIN · MIN 52% → 77% +24MIN 52% → 77%+24 pts
- P310:56Owen Tippett Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Travis Konecny (18), Jamie Drysdale (6)PHI 3 – 3 MIN · PHI 16% → 48% +32PHI 16% → 48%+32 pts
- OT3:36Joel Farabee Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Egor Zamula (8), Owen Tippett (11)PHI 4 – 3 MIN · PHI 49% → >99% +50PHI 49% → >99%+50 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Wild 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 52%
- Fair odds
- MIN -120
- PHI +120 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 3.0 – 3.3 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1503 | 1482 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −5 | −5 | PHI: Carter Hart: team allows 0.14 more goals than with its usual starter (≈17 weighted starts) · MIN: Marc-Andre Fleury: team allows 0.13 more goals than with its usual starter (≈15 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +15 Elo | MIN 52.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 54.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| PHI | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 312.9 | Goals scored | 3.023rd of 31 |
| 8th of 312.9 | Goals allowed | 3.420th of 31 |
| 15th of 310.0 | Margin | −0.423rd of 31 |
| 5th of 3153.8% | Shot share | 49.9%17th of 31 |
| 12th of 3190.6% | Save percentage | 89.5%25th of 31 |
| 22nd of 313–7 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 31 |
| 15th of 3110–10 | Road vs home | 10–915th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
PHI 1–0 MIN in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.