Dallas Stars at Minnesota Wild, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Stars- Tyler SeguinGoals1
- Tyler SeguinAssists1
- Tyler SeguinPoints2
WildScoring summary
- P39:57Jason Robertson Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Jamie Benn (18), Roope Hintz (19)4–0
- P38:22Radek Faksa Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Sam Steel (8)3–0
- P31:28Tyler Seguin Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Esa Lindell (11)2–0
- P19:16Roope Hintz Goal (16) Snap Shot, assists: Tyler Seguin (16)1–0
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P19:16Roope Hintz Goal (16) Snap Shot, assists: Tyler Seguin (16)DAL 1 – 0 MIN · DAL 46% → 62% +16DAL 46% → 62%+16 pts
- P31:28Tyler Seguin Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Esa Lindell (11)DAL 2 – 0 MIN · DAL 72% → 90% +17DAL 72% → 90%+17 pts
- P38:22Radek Faksa Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Sam Steel (8)DAL 3 – 0 MIN · DAL 95% → >99% +5DAL 95% → >99%+5 pts
- P39:57Jason Robertson Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Jamie Benn (18), Roope Hintz (19)DAL 4 – 0 MIN · DAL >99% → >99% +0DAL >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Wild 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 51%
- Fair odds
- MIN -119
- DAL +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 3.0 – 3.3 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1515 | 1492 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | 0 | −3 | DAL: Matt Murray (no track record yet) · MIN: Marc-Andre Fleury: team allows 0.09 more goals than with its usual starter (≈14 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +8 Elo | MIN 51.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 54.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| DAL | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 313.6 | Goals scored | 3.121st of 31 |
| 16th of 313.2 | Goals allowed | 3.218th of 31 |
| 10th of 31+0.5 | Margin | −0.220th of 31 |
| 16th of 3150.4% | Shot share | 50.0%17th of 31 |
| 22nd of 3189.8% | Save percentage | 90.0%20th of 31 |
| 11th of 315–5 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 31 |
| 6th of 3110–7 | Road vs home | 10–813th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
DAL 1–0 MIN in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.