Minnesota Wild at Columbus Blue Jackets, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CBJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Wild- Matt BoldyGoals2
- Brock FaberAssists3
- Matt BoldyPoints3
Blue Jackets- Cole SillingerGoals3
- Adam BoqvistAssists2
- Cole SillingerPoints3
Scoring summary
- OT3:05Marco Rossi Goal (12) Slap Shot, assists: Matt Boldy (11), Brock Faber (17)4–3
- P318:28Marcus Johansson Goal (5) Backhand, assists: Ryan Hartman (8)3–3
- P314:15Cole Sillinger Goal (7) Tip-In, assists: Adam Boqvist (5)2–3
- P210:15Matt Boldy Goal (13) Backhand, assists: Mats Zuccarello (23), Brock Faber (16)2–2
- P20:17Cole Sillinger Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Kirill Marchenko (9)1–2
- P114:48Matt Boldy Goal (12) Slap Shot, assists: Brock Faber (15), Joel Eriksson Ek (11)1–1
- P18:09Cole Sillinger Goal (5) Tip-In, assists: Jake Bean (4), Adam Boqvist (4)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P20:17Cole Sillinger Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Kirill Marchenko (9)MIN 1 – 2 CBJ · CBJ 54% → 71% +17CBJ 54% → 71%+17 pts
- P210:15Matt Boldy Goal (13) Backhand, assists: Mats Zuccarello (23), Brock Faber (16)MIN 2 – 2 CBJ · MIN 27% → 47% +19MIN 27% → 47%+19 pts
- P314:15Cole Sillinger Goal (7) Tip-In, assists: Adam Boqvist (5)MIN 2 – 3 CBJ · CBJ 51% → 89% +37CBJ 51% → 89%+37 pts
- P318:28Marcus Johansson Goal (5) Backhand, assists: Ryan Hartman (8)MIN 3 – 3 CBJ · MIN 1% → 49% +48MIN 1% → 49%+48 pts
- OT3:05Marco Rossi Goal (12) Slap Shot, assists: Matt Boldy (11), Brock Faber (17)MIN 4 – 3 CBJ · MIN 49% → 98% +49MIN 49% → 98%+49 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Blue Jackets 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CBJ 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CBJ 52%
- Fair odds
- CBJ -120
- MIN +120 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 3.0 – 3.3 CBJ
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | CBJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1490 | 1466 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −5 | +1 | MIN: Marc-Andre Fleury: team allows 0.13 more goals than with its usual starter (≈13 weighted starts) · CBJ: Daniil Tarasov: team allows 0.01 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CBJ +17 Elo | CBJ 52.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CBJ 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CBJ 54.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| MIN | Stat | CBJ |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 313.0 | Goals scored | 3.119th of 31 |
| 18th of 313.2 | Goals allowed | 3.729th of 31 |
| 22nd of 31−0.2 | Margin | −0.627th of 31 |
| 16th of 3149.9% | Shot share | 45.8%28th of 31 |
| 21st of 3190.0% | Save percentage | 90.1%16th of 31 |
| 15th of 315–5 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 31 |
| 26th of 316–11 | Road vs home | 8–1327th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIN 0–1 CBJ in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.