Minnesota Wild at Dallas Stars, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Wild- Matt BoldyGoals1
- Matt BoldyAssists1
- Matt BoldyPoints2
Stars- Nils LundkvistGoals1
- Esa LindellAssists3
- Esa LindellPoints3
Scoring summary
- P318:17Sam Steel Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Esa Lindell (14), Craig Smith (2)2–7
- P316:10Tyler Seguin Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Mason Marchment (19)2–6
- P311:03Ryan Hartman Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Mats Zuccarello (24), Matt Boldy (12)2–5
- P39:26Nils Lundkvist Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Radek Faksa (5)1–5
- P38:05Jason Robertson Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Esa Lindell (13)1–4
- P34:22Matt Boldy Goal (14) Deflected, assists: Brock Faber (18), Joel Eriksson Ek (12)1–3
- P214:59Roope Hintz Goal (17) Snap Shot, assists: Mason Marchment (18), Esa Lindell (12)0–3
- P24:28Matt Duchene Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Ryan Suter (7), Nils Lundkvist (11)0–2
- P116:45Joe Pavelski Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: none0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P116:45Joe Pavelski Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: noneMIN 0 – 1 DAL · DAL 55% → 71% +16DAL 55% → 71%+16 pts
- P24:28Matt Duchene Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Ryan Suter (7), Nils Lundkvist (11)MIN 0 – 2 DAL · DAL 72% → 85% +13DAL 72% → 85%+13 pts
- P214:59Roope Hintz Goal (17) Snap Shot, assists: Mason Marchment (18), Esa Lindell (12)MIN 0 – 3 DAL · DAL 89% → 96% +7DAL 89% → 96%+7 pts
- P34:22Matt Boldy Goal (14) Deflected, assists: Brock Faber (18), Joel Eriksson Ek (12)MIN 1 – 3 DAL · MIN 1% → 7% +5MIN 1% → 7%+5 pts
- P38:05Jason Robertson Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Esa Lindell (13)MIN 1 – 4 DAL · DAL 96% → >99% +4DAL 96% → >99%+4 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Stars 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL 58%
- Fair odds
- DAL -125
- MIN +125 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 3.0 – 3.3 DAL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1487 | 1520 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +9 | −5 | MIN: Jesper Wallstedt (no track record yet) · DAL: Scott Wedgewood: team allows 0.12 more goals than with its usual starter (≈15 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +55 Elo | DAL 57.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 55.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| MIN | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 313.0 | Goals scored | 3.64th of 31 |
| 19th of 313.3 | Goals allowed | 3.114th of 31 |
| 21st of 31−0.3 | Margin | +0.67th of 31 |
| 17th of 3150.1% | Shot share | 50.3%16th of 31 |
| 22nd of 3189.8% | Save percentage | 90.0%18th of 31 |
| 13th of 315–5 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 31 |
| 23rd of 317–11 | Road vs home | 11–913th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIN 0–2 DAL in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 2.