Chicago Blackhawks at Winnipeg Jets, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WPG; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blackhawks- Connor MurphyGoals1
- Cole GuttmanAssists1
- Connor MurphyPoints1
Jets- Nikolaj EhlersGoals1
- Adam LowryAssists2
- Adam LowryPoints2
Scoring summary
- P318:55Nikolaj Ehlers Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Adam Lowry (14), Brenden Dillon (9)1–2
- P316:31Gabriel Vilardi Goal (10) Tip-In, assists: Adam Lowry (13), Josh Morrissey (25)1–1
- P24:19Connor Murphy Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Lukas Reichel (6), Cole Guttman (4)1–0
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P24:19Connor Murphy Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Lukas Reichel (6), Cole Guttman (4)CHI 1 – 0 WPG · CHI 44% → 63% +19CHI 44% → 63%+19 pts
- P316:31Gabriel Vilardi Goal (10) Tip-In, assists: Adam Lowry (13), Josh Morrissey (25)CHI 1 – 1 WPG · WPG 7% → 52% +45WPG 7% → 52%+45 pts
- P318:55Nikolaj Ehlers Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Adam Lowry (14), Brenden Dillon (9)CHI 1 – 2 WPG · WPG 51% → >99% +49WPG 51% → >99%+49 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Jets 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- WPG 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WPG 69%
- Fair odds
- WPG -137
- CHI +137 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHI 2.9 – 3.4 WPG
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | WPG | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1444 | 1544 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +1 | +1 | CHI: Petr Mrazek: team allows 0.02 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈20 weighted starts) · WPG: Laurent Brossoit: team allows 0.03 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WPG +135 Elo | WPG 68.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WPG 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WPG 57.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CHI | Stat | WPG |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 312.4 | Goals scored | 3.314th of 31 |
| 28th of 313.6 | Goals allowed | 2.41st of 31 |
| 30th of 31−1.3 | Margin | +0.92nd of 31 |
| 30th of 3144.4% | Shot share | 51.3%11th of 31 |
| 24th of 3189.5% | Save percentage | 92.5%1st of 31 |
| 29th of 312–8 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 31 |
| 30th of 314–17 | Road vs home | 13–76th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CHI 1–1 WPG in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.