Columbus Blue Jackets at Winnipeg Jets, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WPG; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jackets
Jets- Cole PerfettiGoals2
- Adam LowryAssists2
- Cole PerfettiPoints3
Scoring summary
- P39:29Gabriel Vilardi Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Adam Lowry (12), Cole Perfetti (15)0–5
- P33:34Cole Perfetti Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: none0–4
- P214:03Josh Morrissey Goal (7) Slap Shot, assists: Adam Lowry (11)0–3
- P210:50Cole Perfetti Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Dylan Samberg (11), Nate Schmidt (5)0–2
- P13:12Brenden Dillon Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Nikolaj Ehlers (18), Mark Scheifele (27)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P13:12Brenden Dillon Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Nikolaj Ehlers (18), Mark Scheifele (27)CBJ 0 – 1 WPG · WPG 57% → 71% +14WPG 57% → 71%+14 pts
- P210:50Cole Perfetti Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Dylan Samberg (11), Nate Schmidt (5)CBJ 0 – 2 WPG · WPG 74% → 88% +14WPG 74% → 88%+14 pts
- P214:03Josh Morrissey Goal (7) Slap Shot, assists: Adam Lowry (11)CBJ 0 – 3 WPG · WPG 89% → 96% +7WPG 89% → 96%+7 pts
- P33:34Cole Perfetti Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: noneCBJ 0 – 4 WPG · WPG 99% → >99% +1WPG 99% → >99%+1 pts
- P39:29Gabriel Vilardi Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Adam Lowry (12), Cole Perfetti (15)CBJ 0 – 5 WPG · WPG >99% → >99% +0WPG >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Jets 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- WPG 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WPG 68%
- Fair odds
- WPG -136
- CBJ +136 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CBJ 2.9 – 3.4 WPG
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CBJ | WPG | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1463 | 1540 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −1 | +14 | CBJ: Daniil Tarasov: team allows 0.03 more goals than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · WPG: Connor Hellebuyck: team allows 0.35 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈21 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WPG +127 Elo | WPG 67.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WPG 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WPG 57.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CBJ | Stat | WPG |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 313.1 | Goals scored | 3.214th of 31 |
| 30th of 313.7 | Goals allowed | 2.41st of 31 |
| 27th of 31−0.6 | Margin | +0.82nd of 31 |
| 28th of 3145.7% | Shot share | 51.5%11th of 31 |
| 17th of 3190.1% | Save percentage | 92.3%1st of 31 |
| 23rd of 313–7 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 31 |
| 29th of 315–13 | Road vs home | 12–78th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.