Boston Bruins at St. Louis Blues, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors STL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bruins- Charlie McAvoyGoals2
- David PastrnakAssists2
- Brad MarchandPoints2
Blues- Kevin HayesGoals1
- Nick LeddyAssists1
- Kevin HayesPoints1
Scoring summary
- OT1:10Charlie McAvoy Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: David Pastrnak (34)4–3
- P314:47Oskar Sundqvist Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Scott Perunovich (8), Brayden Schenn (10)3–3
- P37:43Brad Marchand Goal (19) Snap Shot, assists: David Pastrnak (33), James van Riemsdyk (20)3–2
- P210:57Jake Neighbours Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Jordan Kyrou (19), Robert Thomas (28)2–2
- P26:26Charlie McAvoy Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Jesper Boqvist (1), James van Riemsdyk (19)2–1
- P16:07Kevin Hayes Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Kasperi Kapanen (9), Nick Leddy (10)1–1
- P15:02Brad Marchand Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Charlie Coyle (17)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P26:26Charlie McAvoy Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Jesper Boqvist (1), James van Riemsdyk (19)BOS 2 – 1 STL · BOS 47% → 66% +19BOS 47% → 66%+19 pts
- P210:57Jake Neighbours Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Jordan Kyrou (19), Robert Thomas (28)BOS 2 – 2 STL · STL 33% → 53% +20STL 33% → 53%+20 pts
- P37:43Brad Marchand Goal (19) Snap Shot, assists: David Pastrnak (33), James van Riemsdyk (20)BOS 3 – 2 STL · BOS 48% → 78% +30BOS 48% → 78%+30 pts
- P314:47Oskar Sundqvist Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Scott Perunovich (8), Brayden Schenn (10)BOS 3 – 3 STL · STL 11% → 51% +40STL 11% → 51%+40 pts
- OT1:10Charlie McAvoy Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: David Pastrnak (34)BOS 4 – 3 STL · BOS 49% → 92% +43BOS 49% → 92%+43 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Blues 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 51%
- Fair odds
- STL -119
- BOS +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 3.0 – 3.3 STL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1526 | 1497 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −1 | +3 | BOS: Jeremy Swayman: team allows 0.03 more goals than with its usual starter (≈17 weighted starts) · STL: Jordan Binnington: team allows 0.09 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈20 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +10 Elo | STL 51.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 54.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| BOS | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 313.3 | Goals scored | 2.926th of 31 |
| 5th of 312.7 | Goals allowed | 3.116th of 31 |
| 4th of 31+0.6 | Margin | −0.221st of 31 |
| 21st of 3149.0% | Shot share | 48.0%23rd of 31 |
| 2nd of 3191.8% | Save percentage | 91.1%8th of 31 |
| 13th of 315–5 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 31 |
| 11th of 3112–10 | Road vs home | 12–65th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.