Boston Bruins at Vegas Golden Knights, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors VGK; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bruins- Matt GrzelcykGoals1
- Trent FredericAssists1
- Matt GrzelcykPoints1
Golden Knights- Jack EichelGoals1
- Jack EichelAssists1
- Jack EichelPoints2
Scoring summary
- OT0:46Alex Pietrangelo Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Mark Stone (28), Jack Eichel (25)1–2
- P312:18Matt Grzelcyk Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Trent Frederic (10)1–1
- P37:01Jack Eichel Goal (19) Tip-In, assists: Jonathan Marchessault (12), Alec Martinez (2)0–1
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P37:01Jack Eichel Goal (19) Tip-In, assists: Jonathan Marchessault (12), Alec Martinez (2)BOS 0 – 1 VGK · VGK 50% → 78% +28VGK 50% → 78%+28 pts
- P312:18Matt Grzelcyk Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Trent Frederic (10)BOS 1 – 1 VGK · BOS 15% → 50% +35BOS 15% → 50%+35 pts
- OT0:46Alex Pietrangelo Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Mark Stone (28), Jack Eichel (25)BOS 1 – 2 VGK · VGK 50% → 92% +41VGK 50% → 92%+41 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Golden Knights 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- VGK 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- VGK 49%
- Fair odds
- VGK -101
- BOS +101 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 3.1 – 3.1 VGK
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | VGK | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1529 | 1514 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | — | −30 | VGK on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −3 | −3 | BOS: Jeremy Swayman: team allows 0.07 more goals than with its usual starter (≈17 weighted starts) · VGK: Logan Thompson: team allows 0.07 more goals than with its usual starter (≈17 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +10 Elo | BOS 51.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | VGK 50.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | VGK 50.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| BOS | Stat | VGK |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 313.4 | Goals scored | 3.312th of 31 |
| 5th of 312.7 | Goals allowed | 2.87th of 31 |
| 3rd of 31+0.7 | Margin | +0.59th of 31 |
| 21st of 3148.8% | Shot share | 51.2%12th of 31 |
| 2nd of 3191.8% | Save percentage | 91.2%8th of 31 |
| 13th of 315–5 | Last 10 | 3–722nd of 31 |
| 8th of 3112–9 | Road vs home | 14–52nd of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.