St. Louis Blues at Washington Capitals, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blues- Nathan WalkerGoals2
- Nick LeddyAssists1
- Nathan WalkerPoints2
Capitals- T.J. OshieGoals3
- John CarlsonAssists2
- T.J. OshiePoints3
Scoring summary
- P319:40T.J. Oshie Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Martin Fehervary (7)2–5
- P34:01Nathan Walker Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Justin Faulk (16), Nikita Alexandrov (1)2–4
- P30:34Dylan Strome Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex Ovechkin (20), John Carlson (23)1–4
- P210:27T.J. Oshie Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Dylan Strome (12), Max Pacioretty (4)1–3
- P23:32Nicolas Aube-Kubel Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Hendrix Lapierre (5), John Carlson (22)1–2
- P117:54Nathan Walker Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Nick Leddy (11), Colton Parayko (7)1–1
- P110:24T.J. Oshie Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Max Pacioretty (3)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P110:24T.J. Oshie Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Max Pacioretty (3)STL 0 – 1 WSH · WSH 55% → 70% +15WSH 55% → 70%+15 pts
- P117:54Nathan Walker Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Nick Leddy (11), Colton Parayko (7)STL 1 – 1 WSH · STL 29% → 46% +16STL 29% → 46%+16 pts
- P23:32Nicolas Aube-Kubel Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Hendrix Lapierre (5), John Carlson (22)STL 1 – 2 WSH · WSH 54% → 72% +18WSH 54% → 72%+18 pts
- P210:27T.J. Oshie Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Dylan Strome (12), Max Pacioretty (4)STL 1 – 3 WSH · WSH 73% → 87% +14WSH 73% → 87%+14 pts
- P30:34Dylan Strome Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex Ovechkin (20), John Carlson (23)STL 1 – 4 WSH · WSH 91% → 98% +6WSH 91% → 98%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Capitals 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH 55%
- Fair odds
- WSH -123
- STL +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 2.9 – 3.2 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1491 | 1486 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +2 | +9 | STL: Jordan Binnington: team allows 0.05 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈21 weighted starts) · WSH: Charlie Lindgren: team allows 0.24 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈14 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +38 Elo | WSH 55.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 55.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| STL | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 312.9 | Goals scored | 2.529th of 31 |
| 17th of 313.1 | Goals allowed | 2.99th of 31 |
| 21st of 31−0.3 | Margin | −0.425th of 31 |
| 23rd of 3147.6% | Shot share | 47.2%25th of 31 |
| 6th of 3191.1% | Save percentage | 91.1%7th of 31 |
| 14th of 315–5 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 31 |
| 24th of 317–11 | Road vs home | 12–1117th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.