Colorado Avalanche at Boston Bruins, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BOS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Avalanche- Miles WoodGoals1
- Josh MansonAssists1
- Nathan MacKinnonPoints1
Bruins- David PastrnakGoals3
- Charlie CoyleAssists2
- David PastrnakPoints3
Scoring summary
- P319:38David Pastrnak Goal (29) Wrist Shot, assists: Charlie Coyle (19)2–5
- P317:24David Pastrnak Goal (28) Tip-In, assists: Jake DeBrusk (12)2–4
- P216:20Nathan MacKinnon Goal (24) Snap Shot, assists: Josh Manson (9), Cale Makar (43)2–3
- P114:52Jake DeBrusk Goal (10) Tip-In, assists: Parker Wotherspoon (3), Pavel Zacha (17)1–3
- P17:32Miles Wood Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Devon Toews (20), Sam Malinski (6)1–2
- P14:58Jakub Lauko Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Morgan Geekie (13), Hampus Lindholm (14)0–2
- P10:44David Pastrnak Goal (27) Wrist Shot, assists: Charlie Coyle (18)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P10:44David Pastrnak Goal (27) Wrist Shot, assists: Charlie Coyle (18)COL 0 – 1 BOS · BOS 55% → 69% +14BOS 55% → 69%+14 pts
- P14:58Jakub Lauko Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Morgan Geekie (13), Hampus Lindholm (14)COL 0 – 2 BOS · BOS 69% → 81% +12BOS 69% → 81%+12 pts
- P17:32Miles Wood Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Devon Toews (20), Sam Malinski (6)COL 1 – 2 BOS · COL 19% → 31% +12COL 19% → 31%+12 pts
- P114:52Jake DeBrusk Goal (10) Tip-In, assists: Parker Wotherspoon (3), Pavel Zacha (17)COL 1 – 3 BOS · BOS 70% → 83% +13BOS 70% → 83%+13 pts
- P216:20Nathan MacKinnon Goal (24) Snap Shot, assists: Josh Manson (9), Cale Makar (43)COL 2 – 3 BOS · COL 11% → 26% +15COL 11% → 26%+15 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Bruins 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 54%
- Fair odds
- BOS -121
- COL +121 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 3.0 – 3.2 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1540 | 1533 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +3 | +3 | COL: Alexandar Georgiev: team allows 0.06 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈24 weighted starts) · BOS: Jeremy Swayman: team allows 0.08 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈19 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +28 Elo | BOS 54.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 54.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| COL | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 313.8 | Goals scored | 3.312th of 31 |
| 16th of 313.1 | Goals allowed | 2.63rd of 31 |
| 5th of 31+0.7 | Margin | +0.73rd of 31 |
| 6th of 3152.8% | Shot share | 49.4%21st of 31 |
| 23rd of 3189.7% | Save percentage | 92.0%2nd of 31 |
| 2nd of 318–2 | Last 10 | 7–35th of 31 |
| 12th of 3111–9 | Road vs home | 12–65th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
COL 1–0 BOS in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.