New Jersey Devils at Boston Bruins, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BOS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Devils
Bruins- David PastrnakGoals1
- Brad MarchandAssists2
- David PastrnakPoints2
Scoring summary
- P318:42Trent Frederic Goal (13) Poke, assists: none0–3
- P33:22David Pastrnak Goal (26) Slap Shot, assists: Charlie McAvoy (23), Brad Marchand (22)0–2
- P20:30Charlie Coyle Goal (15) Backhand, assists: Brad Marchand (21), David Pastrnak (35)0–1
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P20:30Charlie Coyle Goal (15) Backhand, assists: Brad Marchand (21), David Pastrnak (35)NJ 0 – 1 BOS · BOS 54% → 71% +17BOS 54% → 71%+17 pts
- P33:22David Pastrnak Goal (26) Slap Shot, assists: Charlie McAvoy (23), Brad Marchand (22)NJ 0 – 2 BOS · BOS 78% → 93% +15BOS 78% → 93%+15 pts
- P318:42Trent Frederic Goal (13) Poke, assists: noneNJ 0 – 3 BOS · BOS >99% → >99% +0BOS >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Bruins 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 57%
- Fair odds
- BOS -124
- NJ +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NJ 3.0 – 3.3 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NJ | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1508 | 1529 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +9 | −1 | NJ: Nico Daws: team allows 0.22 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) · BOS: Jeremy Swayman: team allows 0.03 more goals than with its usual starter (≈18 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +46 Elo | BOS 56.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 55.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NJ | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 313.6 | Goals scored | 3.311th of 31 |
| 26th of 313.5 | Goals allowed | 2.75th of 31 |
| 17th of 31+0.1 | Margin | +0.73rd of 31 |
| 10th of 3151.5% | Shot share | 49.3%21st of 31 |
| 29th of 3188.9% | Save percentage | 91.8%2nd of 31 |
| 8th of 316–4 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 31 |
| 1st of 3113–7 | Road vs home | 11–66th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NJ 1–1 BOS in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.