Washington Capitals at Minnesota Wild, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Capitals- T.J. OshieGoals1
- Nic DowdAssists1
- T.J. OshiePoints1
Wild- Marcus JohanssonGoals2
- Marcus FolignoAssists1
- Marcus JohanssonPoints2
Scoring summary
- P318:24Anthony Mantha Goal (14) Backhand, assists: Beck Malenstyn (7), Nic Dowd (6)3–5
- P317:03T.J. Oshie Goal (8) Tip-In, assists: John Carlson (24), Max Pacioretty (5)2–5
- P313:39Marcus Johansson Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Ryan Hartman (10), Pat Maroon (12)1–5
- P31:37Joel Eriksson Ek Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: Marcus Foligno (11), Jonas Brodin (11)1–4
- P210:00Anthony Mantha Goal (13) Tip-In, assists: Evgeny Kuznetsov (9), Martin Fehervary (8)1–3
- P26:28Marcus Johansson Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Zach Bogosian (7)0–3
- P14:42Marcus Foligno Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Matt Boldy (17), Joel Eriksson Ek (18)0–2
- P11:37Brock Faber Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Mats Zuccarello (28), Marco Rossi (15)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P11:37Brock Faber Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Mats Zuccarello (28), Marco Rossi (15)WSH 0 – 1 MIN · MIN 55% → 69% +14MIN 55% → 69%+14 pts
- P14:42Marcus Foligno Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Matt Boldy (17), Joel Eriksson Ek (18)WSH 0 – 2 MIN · MIN 70% → 81% +12MIN 70% → 81%+12 pts
- P26:28Marcus Johansson Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Zach Bogosian (7)WSH 0 – 3 MIN · MIN 86% → 94% +8MIN 86% → 94%+8 pts
- P210:00Anthony Mantha Goal (13) Tip-In, assists: Evgeny Kuznetsov (9), Martin Fehervary (8)WSH 1 – 3 MIN · WSH 5% → 13% +8WSH 5% → 13%+8 pts
- P31:37Joel Eriksson Ek Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: Marcus Foligno (11), Jonas Brodin (11)WSH 1 – 4 MIN · MIN 92% → 98% +6MIN 92% → 98%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Wild 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 58%
- Fair odds
- MIN -125
- WSH +125 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 3.0 – 3.3 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1486 | 1491 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −6 | +7 | WSH: Darcy Kuemper: team allows 0.14 more goals than with its usual starter (≈17 weighted starts) · MIN: Filip Gustavsson: team allows 0.18 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈19 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +53 Elo | MIN 57.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 55.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| WSH | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 312.5 | Goals scored | 3.115th of 31 |
| 8th of 312.9 | Goals allowed | 3.423rd of 31 |
| 25th of 31−0.4 | Margin | −0.222nd of 31 |
| 25th of 3147.2% | Shot share | 49.4%19th of 31 |
| 8th of 3191.0% | Save percentage | 89.6%26th of 31 |
| 16th of 315–5 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 31 |
| 16th of 319–10 | Road vs home | 11–1015th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
WSH 1–0 MIN in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.