Minnesota Wild at Carolina Hurricanes, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CAR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Wild- Kirill KaprizovGoals3
- Joel Eriksson EkAssists2
- Kirill KaprizovPoints3
Hurricanes- Martin NecasGoals1
- Stefan NoesenAssists1
- Martin NecasPoints1
Scoring summary
- P319:04Jake Middleton Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Zach Bogosian (6), Joel Eriksson Ek (17)5–2
- P317:59Kirill Kaprizov Goal (18) Slap Shot, assists: Brock Faber (24)4–2
- P39:32Joel Eriksson Ek Goal (19) Snap Shot, assists: Jonas Brodin (10), Brock Faber (23)3–2
- P38:17Michael Bunting Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Seth Jarvis (19), Sebastian Aho (35)2–2
- P26:18Kirill Kaprizov Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Matt Boldy (16), Joel Eriksson Ek (16)2–1
- P117:43Kirill Kaprizov Goal (16) Tip-In, assists: Alex Goligoski (9), Marco Rossi (14)1–1
- P114:02Martin Necas Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Stefan Noesen (16), Jack Drury (12)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P114:02Martin Necas Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Stefan Noesen (16), Jack Drury (12)MIN 0 – 1 CAR · CAR 55% → 71% +16CAR 55% → 71%+16 pts
- P117:43Kirill Kaprizov Goal (16) Tip-In, assists: Alex Goligoski (9), Marco Rossi (14)MIN 1 – 1 CAR · MIN 29% → 45% +16MIN 29% → 45%+16 pts
- P26:18Kirill Kaprizov Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Matt Boldy (16), Joel Eriksson Ek (16)MIN 2 – 1 CAR · MIN 46% → 65% +19MIN 46% → 65%+19 pts
- P38:17Michael Bunting Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Seth Jarvis (19), Sebastian Aho (35)MIN 2 – 2 CAR · CAR 22% → 53% +30CAR 22% → 53%+30 pts
- P39:32Joel Eriksson Ek Goal (19) Snap Shot, assists: Jonas Brodin (10), Brock Faber (23)MIN 3 – 2 CAR · MIN 48% → 79% +32MIN 48% → 79%+32 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Hurricanes 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CAR 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CAR 58%
- Fair odds
- CAR -126
- MIN +126 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 3.0 – 3.3 CAR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | CAR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1486 | 1527 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +6 | −11 | MIN: Filip Gustavsson: team allows 0.15 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈19 weighted starts) · CAR: Antti Raanta: team allows 0.28 more goals than with its usual starter (≈15 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CAR +59 Elo | CAR 58.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CAR 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CAR 55.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| MIN | Stat | CAR |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 313.1 | Goals scored | 3.58th of 31 |
| 23rd of 313.4 | Goals allowed | 3.014th of 31 |
| 24th of 31−0.3 | Margin | +0.410th of 31 |
| 17th of 3149.8% | Shot share | 56.7%1st of 31 |
| 27th of 3189.4% | Save percentage | 88.7%30th of 31 |
| 23rd of 313–7 | Last 10 | 8–23rd of 31 |
| 25th of 318–13 | Road vs home | 13–89th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.