Los Angeles Kings at Carolina Hurricanes, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CAR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kings- Trevor MooreGoals2
- Phillip DanaultAssists2
- Phillip DanaultPoints3
Hurricanes- Jordan MartinookGoals1
- Seth JarvisAssists1
- Jordan MartinookPoints1
Scoring summary
- P318:44Trevor Moore Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: Phillip Danault (18), Matt Roy (11)5–2
- P38:58Jack Drury Goal (8) Backhand, assists: Stefan Noesen (15), Jalen Chatfield (8)4–2
- P35:20Pierre-Luc Dubois Goal (9) Slap Shot, assists: Jaret Anderson-Dolan (3), Mikey Anderson (13)4–1
- P32:21Alex Laferriere Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Mikey Anderson (12), Pierre-Luc Dubois (10)3–1
- P31:01Phillip Danault Goal (9) Poke, assists: Matt Roy (10), Vladislav Gavrikov (9)2–1
- P25:38Jordan Martinook Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Seth Jarvis (18), Brent Burns (17)1–1
- P16:24Trevor Moore Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Phillip Danault (17), Vladislav Gavrikov (8)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P16:24Trevor Moore Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Phillip Danault (17), Vladislav Gavrikov (8)LA 1 – 0 CAR · LA 45% → 60% +15LA 45% → 60%+15 pts
- P25:38Jordan Martinook Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Seth Jarvis (18), Brent Burns (17)LA 1 – 1 CAR · CAR 35% → 54% +19CAR 35% → 54%+19 pts
- P31:01Phillip Danault Goal (9) Poke, assists: Matt Roy (10), Vladislav Gavrikov (9)LA 2 – 1 CAR · LA 47% → 72% +25LA 47% → 72%+25 pts
- P32:21Alex Laferriere Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Mikey Anderson (12), Pierre-Luc Dubois (10)LA 3 – 1 CAR · LA 73% → 90% +17LA 73% → 90%+17 pts
- P35:20Pierre-Luc Dubois Goal (9) Slap Shot, assists: Jaret Anderson-Dolan (3), Mikey Anderson (13)LA 4 – 1 CAR · LA 92% → 98% +6LA 92% → 98%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Hurricanes 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CAR 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CAR 57%
- Fair odds
- CAR -124
- LA +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LA 3.0 – 3.3 CAR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LA | CAR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1505 | 1529 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −4 | −14 | LA: David Rittich: team allows 0.10 more goals than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · CAR: Antti Raanta: team allows 0.36 more goals than with its usual starter (≈13 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CAR +48 Elo | CAR 56.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CAR 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CAR 55.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| LA | Stat | CAR |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 313.2 | Goals scored | 3.57th of 31 |
| 4th of 312.6 | Goals allowed | 3.013th of 31 |
| 6th of 31+0.6 | Margin | +0.59th of 31 |
| 3rd of 3155.5% | Shot share | 56.5%1st of 31 |
| 7th of 3191.2% | Save percentage | 88.8%30th of 31 |
| 29th of 312–8 | Last 10 | 7–36th of 31 |
| 4th of 3111–7 | Road vs home | 12–79th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
LA 0–1 CAR in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.