Los Angeles Kings at Detroit Red Wings, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kings- Quinton ByfieldGoals2
- Anze KopitarAssists2
- Quinton ByfieldPoints2
Red Wings- Dylan LarkinGoals2
- Jeff PetryAssists2
- Dylan LarkinPoints2
Scoring summary
- P35:38Quinton Byfield Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Anze Kopitar (25), Kevin Fiala (27)3–5
- P33:07Pierre-Luc Dubois Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex Laferriere (6), Phillip Danault (16)2–5
- P219:47Andrew Copp Goal (7) Tip-In, assists: Christian Fischer (7), Jeff Petry (11)1–5
- P217:26Patrick Kane Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex DeBrincat (22), Jeff Petry (10)1–4
- P216:22Robby Fabbri Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Daniel Sprong (17), Joe Veleno (9)1–3
- P29:17Dylan Larkin Goal (16) Between Legs, assists: Patrick Kane (9), Shayne Gostisbehere (22)1–2
- P16:58Quinton Byfield Goal (11) Slap Shot, assists: Anze Kopitar (24), Kevin Fiala (26)1–1
- P12:44Dylan Larkin Goal (15) Snap Shot, assists: David Perron (9)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P12:44Dylan Larkin Goal (15) Snap Shot, assists: David Perron (9)LA 0 – 1 DET · DET 55% → 69% +14DET 55% → 69%+14 pts
- P16:58Quinton Byfield Goal (11) Slap Shot, assists: Anze Kopitar (24), Kevin Fiala (26)LA 1 – 1 DET · LA 31% → 45% +15LA 31% → 45%+15 pts
- P29:17Dylan Larkin Goal (16) Between Legs, assists: Patrick Kane (9), Shayne Gostisbehere (22)LA 1 – 2 DET · DET 54% → 73% +19DET 54% → 73%+19 pts
- P216:22Robby Fabbri Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Daniel Sprong (17), Joe Veleno (9)LA 1 – 3 DET · DET 75% → 89% +15DET 75% → 89%+15 pts
- P217:26Patrick Kane Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex DeBrincat (22), Jeff Petry (10)LA 1 – 4 DET · DET 90% → 97% +7DET 90% → 97%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Red Wings 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 55%
- Fair odds
- DET -122
- LA +122 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LA 3.0 – 3.3 DET
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LA | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1509 | 1500 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +1 | +7 | LA: Cam Talbot: team allows 0.02 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈21 weighted starts) · DET: Alex Lyon: team allows 0.18 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈12 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +33 Elo | DET 54.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 55.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| LA | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 313.2 | Goals scored | 3.67th of 31 |
| 2nd of 312.5 | Goals allowed | 3.421st of 31 |
| 4th of 31+0.6 | Margin | +0.214th of 31 |
| 3rd of 3155.5% | Shot share | 47.6%24th of 31 |
| 5th of 3191.4% | Save percentage | 90.1%17th of 31 |
| 29th of 312–8 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 31 |
| 2nd of 3111–6 | Road vs home | 10–1016th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
LA 0–1 DET in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.