Pittsburgh Penguins at Carolina Hurricanes, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CAR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Penguins- Bryan RustGoals1
- Bryan RustAssists1
- Bryan RustPoints2
Hurricanes- Brett PesceGoals2
- Seth JarvisAssists1
- Brett PescePoints2
Scoring summary
- OT1:41Brett Pesce Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Teuvo Teravainen (11), Seth Jarvis (17)2–3
- P319:07Bryan Rust Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Erik Karlsson (23), Kris Letang (25)2–2
- P36:45Jake Guentzel Goal (19) Snap Shot, assists: Sidney Crosby (20), Bryan Rust (13)1–2
- P19:04Jordan Martinook Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Jalen Chatfield (7)0–2
- P16:12Brett Pesce Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Sebastian Aho (33), Andrei Svechnikov (18)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P16:12Brett Pesce Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Sebastian Aho (33), Andrei Svechnikov (18)PIT 0 – 1 CAR · CAR 55% → 69% +15CAR 55% → 69%+15 pts
- P19:04Jordan Martinook Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Jalen Chatfield (7)PIT 0 – 2 CAR · CAR 70% → 82% +12CAR 70% → 82%+12 pts
- P36:45Jake Guentzel Goal (19) Snap Shot, assists: Sidney Crosby (20), Bryan Rust (13)PIT 1 – 2 CAR · PIT 5% → 20% +15PIT 5% → 20%+15 pts
- P319:07Bryan Rust Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Erik Karlsson (23), Kris Letang (25)PIT 2 – 2 CAR · PIT <1% → 49% +49PIT <1% → 49%+49 pts
- OT1:41Brett Pesce Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Teuvo Teravainen (11), Seth Jarvis (17)PIT 2 – 3 CAR · CAR 51% → 94% +43CAR 51% → 94%+43 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Hurricanes 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CAR 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CAR 56%
- Fair odds
- CAR -123
- PIT +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 3.0 – 3.3 CAR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | CAR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1507 | 1527 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −3 | −20 | PIT: Tristan Jarry: team allows 0.09 more goals than with its usual starter (≈20 weighted starts) · CAR: Antti Raanta: team allows 0.50 more goals than with its usual starter (≈12 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CAR +39 Elo | CAR 55.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CAR 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CAR 55.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| PIT | Stat | CAR |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 313.1 | Goals scored | 3.58th of 31 |
| 6th of 312.8 | Goals allowed | 3.012th of 31 |
| 13th of 31+0.3 | Margin | +0.411th of 31 |
| 8th of 3151.7% | Shot share | 56.8%1st of 31 |
| 4th of 3191.5% | Save percentage | 88.6%30th of 31 |
| 8th of 316–4 | Last 10 | 7–36th of 31 |
| 16th of 3110–10 | Road vs home | 11–710th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
PIT 1–1 CAR in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.