Vancouver Canucks at Pittsburgh Penguins, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PIT; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Canucks- Elias PetterssonGoals2
- J.T. MillerAssists3
- Elias PetterssonPoints4
Penguins- Sidney CrosbyGoals2
- Marcus PetterssonAssists1
- Sidney CrosbyPoints2
Scoring summary
- OT3:05Elias Pettersson Goal (22) Wrist Shot, assists: Filip Hronek (33)4–3
- P319:31Sidney Crosby Goal (24) Tip-In, assists: Erik Karlsson (22), Kris Letang (24)3–3
- P26:05Sidney Crosby Goal (23) Snap Shot, assists: Jake Guentzel (27), Marcus Pettersson (15)3–2
- P117:31Elias Pettersson Goal (21) Tip-In, assists: Filip Hronek (32), J.T. Miller (39)3–1
- P116:20Marcus Pettersson Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Jansen Harkins (4)2–1
- P16:31Brock Boeser Goal (27) Tip-In, assists: J.T. Miller (38), Elias Pettersson (35)2–0
- P15:44Brock Boeser Goal (26) Tip-In, assists: Elias Pettersson (34), J.T. Miller (37)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P15:44Brock Boeser Goal (26) Tip-In, assists: Elias Pettersson (34), J.T. Miller (37)VAN 1 – 0 PIT · VAN 46% → 61% +15VAN 46% → 61%+15 pts
- P117:31Elias Pettersson Goal (21) Tip-In, assists: Filip Hronek (32), J.T. Miller (39)VAN 3 – 1 PIT · VAN 64% → 78% +15VAN 64% → 78%+15 pts
- P26:05Sidney Crosby Goal (23) Snap Shot, assists: Jake Guentzel (27), Marcus Pettersson (15)VAN 3 – 2 PIT · PIT 19% → 34% +16PIT 19% → 34%+16 pts
- P319:31Sidney Crosby Goal (24) Tip-In, assists: Erik Karlsson (22), Kris Letang (24)VAN 3 – 3 PIT · PIT <1% → 50% +50PIT <1% → 50%+50 pts
- OT3:05Elias Pettersson Goal (22) Wrist Shot, assists: Filip Hronek (33)VAN 4 – 3 PIT · VAN 49% → 98% +49VAN 49% → 98%+49 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Penguins 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 50%
- Fair odds
- PIT -117
- VAN +117 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- VAN 3.0 – 3.2 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | VAN | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1550 | 1509 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | 0 | +5 | VAN: Thatcher Demko: team allows 0.01 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈22 weighted starts) · PIT: Alex Nedeljkovic: team allows 0.13 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈11 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VAN +1 Elo | VAN 50.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 54.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| VAN | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 313.9 | Goals scored | 3.119th of 31 |
| 4th of 312.6 | Goals allowed | 2.76th of 31 |
| 1st of 31+1.3 | Margin | +0.313th of 31 |
| 22nd of 3148.6% | Shot share | 51.7%10th of 31 |
| 4th of 3191.5% | Save percentage | 91.6%3rd of 31 |
| 6th of 317–3 | Last 10 | 7–36th of 31 |
| 6th of 3113–9 | Road vs home | 9–918th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.