Minnesota Wild at Tampa Bay Lightning, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TB; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Wild- Jake MiddletonGoals1
- Jake MiddletonAssists2
- Jake MiddletonPoints3
Lightning- Anthony CirelliGoals2
- Victor HedmanAssists3
- Victor HedmanPoints4
Scoring summary
- P317:52Anthony Cirelli Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Brandon Hagel (23), Victor Hedman (36)3–7
- P36:59Michael Eyssimont Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Anthony Cirelli (10), Darren Raddysh (12)3–6
- P31:09Steven Stamkos Goal (19) Slap Shot, assists: Nikita Kucherov (47), Victor Hedman (35)3–5
- P219:45Jake Middleton Goal (6) Backhand, assists: Marco Rossi (13), Mats Zuccarello (26)3–4
- P212:41Brayden Point Goal (21) Wrist Shot, assists: Nikita Kucherov (46)2–4
- P210:52Marco Rossi Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Jake Middleton (11), Kirill Kaprizov (23)2–3
- P23:20Waltteri Merela Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Conor Sheary (8), Nick Perbix (14)1–3
- P20:16Anthony Cirelli Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Brayden Point (26), Victor Hedman (34)1–2
- P16:12Victor Hedman Goal (8) Slap Shot, assists: Brayden Point (25), Nikita Kucherov (45)1–1
- P15:17Joel Eriksson Ek Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Brock Faber (20), Jake Middleton (10)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P15:17Joel Eriksson Ek Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Brock Faber (20), Jake Middleton (10)MIN 1 – 0 TB · MIN 45% → 60% +15MIN 45% → 60%+15 pts
- P16:12Victor Hedman Goal (8) Slap Shot, assists: Brayden Point (25), Nikita Kucherov (45)MIN 1 – 1 TB · TB 40% → 55% +15TB 40% → 55%+15 pts
- P20:16Anthony Cirelli Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Brayden Point (26), Victor Hedman (34)MIN 1 – 2 TB · TB 54% → 71% +17TB 54% → 71%+17 pts
- P219:45Jake Middleton Goal (6) Backhand, assists: Marco Rossi (13), Mats Zuccarello (26)MIN 3 – 4 TB · MIN 9% → 24% +15MIN 9% → 24%+15 pts
- P31:09Steven Stamkos Goal (19) Slap Shot, assists: Nikita Kucherov (47), Victor Hedman (35)MIN 3 – 5 TB · TB 77% → 92% +15TB 77% → 92%+15 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Lightning 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 56%
- Fair odds
- TB -124
- MIN +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 3.0 – 3.3 TB
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1485 | 1504 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +14 | +4 | MIN: Filip Gustavsson: team allows 0.35 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈18 weighted starts) · TB: Andrei Vasilevskiy: team allows 0.11 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈17 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +45 Elo | TB 56.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 55.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| MIN | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 313.0 | Goals scored | 3.49th of 31 |
| 19th of 313.3 | Goals allowed | 3.423rd of 31 |
| 22nd of 31−0.3 | Margin | 0.017th of 31 |
| 17th of 3150.1% | Shot share | 49.8%19th of 31 |
| 25th of 3189.6% | Save percentage | 89.4%26th of 31 |
| 24th of 313–7 | Last 10 | 6–410th of 31 |
| 26th of 317–12 | Road vs home | 14–87th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIN 0–1 TB in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.