New York Islanders at Minnesota Wild, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Islanders
Wild- Joel Eriksson EkGoals2
- Marcus FolignoAssists1
- Joel Eriksson EkPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:03Marcus Foligno Goal (7) Tip-In, assists: Frederick Gaudreau (7), Jonas Brodin (9)0–5
- P316:09Joel Eriksson Ek Goal (17) Snap Shot, assists: Marcus Foligno (10), Zach Bogosian (5)0–4
- P213:36Joel Eriksson Ek Goal (16) Tip-In, assists: Kirill Kaprizov (22), Mats Zuccarello (25)0–3
- P22:18Connor Dewar Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: none0–2
- P12:11Mats Zuccarello Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Brock Faber (19), Matt Boldy (13)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P12:11Mats Zuccarello Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Brock Faber (19), Matt Boldy (13)NYI 0 – 1 MIN · MIN 55% → 69% +14MIN 55% → 69%+14 pts
- P22:18Connor Dewar Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: noneNYI 0 – 2 MIN · MIN 71% → 85% +13MIN 71% → 85%+13 pts
- P213:36Joel Eriksson Ek Goal (16) Tip-In, assists: Kirill Kaprizov (22), Mats Zuccarello (25)NYI 0 – 3 MIN · MIN 88% → 96% +8MIN 88% → 96%+8 pts
- P316:09Joel Eriksson Ek Goal (17) Snap Shot, assists: Marcus Foligno (10), Zach Bogosian (5)NYI 0 – 4 MIN · MIN >99% → >99% +0MIN >99% → >99%+0 pts
- P319:03Marcus Foligno Goal (7) Tip-In, assists: Frederick Gaudreau (7), Jonas Brodin (9)NYI 0 – 5 MIN · MIN 100% → 100% +0MIN 100% → 100%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Wild 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 55%
- Fair odds
- MIN -122
- NYI +122 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYI 3.0 – 3.3 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYI | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1479 | 1480 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −5 | −5 | NYI: Ilya Sorokin: team allows 0.13 more goals than with its usual starter (≈21 weighted starts) · MIN: Marc-Andre Fleury: team allows 0.14 more goals than with its usual starter (≈15 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +36 Elo | MIN 55.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 55.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NYI | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 313.0 | Goals scored | 3.023rd of 31 |
| 25th of 313.5 | Goals allowed | 3.422nd of 31 |
| 25th of 31−0.5 | Margin | −0.424th of 31 |
| 29th of 3145.2% | Shot share | 49.7%19th of 31 |
| 10th of 3191.0% | Save percentage | 89.5%25th of 31 |
| 22nd of 313–7 | Last 10 | 3–722nd of 31 |
| 26th of 317–12 | Road vs home | 10–1016th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NYI 0–1 MIN in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.