New York Islanders at Nashville Predators, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Islanders- Jean-Gabriel PageauGoals1
- Cal ClutterbuckAssists1
- Jean-Gabriel PageauPoints1
Predators- Alexandre CarrierGoals1
- Ryan McDonaghAssists1
- Alexandre CarrierPoints1
Scoring summary
- P319:59Juuso Parssinen Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Roman Josi (28)1–3
- P319:52Alexandre Carrier Goal (3) Deflected, assists: Jeremy Lauzon (3), Filip Forsberg (26)1–2
- P315:08Luke Evangelista Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan McDonagh (10), Philip Tomasino (12)1–1
- P312:00Jean-Gabriel Pageau Goal (5) Tip-In, assists: Noah Dobson (37), Cal Clutterbuck (9)1–0
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P312:00Jean-Gabriel Pageau Goal (5) Tip-In, assists: Noah Dobson (37), Cal Clutterbuck (9)NYI 1 – 0 NSH · NYI 49% → 84% +34NYI 49% → 84%+34 pts
- P315:08Luke Evangelista Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan McDonagh (10), Philip Tomasino (12)NYI 1 – 1 NSH · NSH 10% → 50% +40NSH 10% → 50%+40 pts
- P319:52Alexandre Carrier Goal (3) Deflected, assists: Jeremy Lauzon (3), Filip Forsberg (26)NYI 1 – 2 NSH · NSH 50% → >99% +50NSH 50% → >99%+50 pts
- P319:59Juuso Parssinen Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Roman Josi (28)NYI 1 – 3 NSH · NSH 100% → 100% +0NSH 100% → 100%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Predators 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NSH 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NSH 55%
- Fair odds
- NSH -107
- NYI +107 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYI 3.1 – 3.2 NSH
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYI | NSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1482 | 1506 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | — | −30 | NSH on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −7 | −1 | NYI: Ilya Sorokin: team allows 0.17 more goals than with its usual starter (≈20 weighted starts) · NSH: Juuse Saros: team allows 0.01 more goals than with its usual starter (≈23 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NSH +35 Elo | NSH 55.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NSH 50.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NSH 51.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NYI | Stat | NSH |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 313.1 | Goals scored | 3.214th of 31 |
| 25th of 313.5 | Goals allowed | 3.114th of 31 |
| 23rd of 31−0.4 | Margin | +0.116th of 31 |
| 29th of 3145.2% | Shot share | 50.1%17th of 31 |
| 10th of 3190.9% | Save percentage | 90.3%15th of 31 |
| 20th of 314–6 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 31 |
| 23rd of 317–11 | Road vs home | 12–1013th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.