Nashville Predators at Dallas Stars, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Predators- Ryan O'ReillyGoals1
- Roman JosiAssists3
- Ryan O'ReillyPoints3
Stars- Matt DucheneGoals1
- Matt DucheneAssists1
- Matt DuchenePoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:29Juuso Parssinen Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: none6–3
- P317:27Gustav Nyquist Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Roman Josi (27), Ryan O'Reilly (22)5–3
- P313:36Matt Duchene Goal (13) Slap Shot, assists: Jason Robertson (27), Joe Pavelski (21)4–3
- P310:08Filip Forsberg Goal (22) Snap Shot, assists: Roman Josi (26), Ryan O'Reilly (21)4–2
- P38:11Wyatt Johnston Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Nils Lundkvist (12), Thomas Harley (11)3–2
- P33:41Ryan O'Reilly Goal (16) Snap Shot, assists: Filip Forsberg (25)3–1
- P31:09Jani Hakanpää Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Matt Duchene (25), Tyler Seguin (17)2–1
- P213:51Tommy Novak Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Denis Gurianov (1), Roman Josi (25)2–0
- P29:22Jeremy Lauzon Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: none1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P29:22Jeremy Lauzon Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: noneNSH 1 – 0 DAL · NSH 46% → 66% +20NSH 46% → 66%+20 pts
- P213:51Tommy Novak Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Denis Gurianov (1), Roman Josi (25)NSH 2 – 0 DAL · NSH 67% → 84% +17NSH 67% → 84%+17 pts
- P31:09Jani Hakanpää Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Matt Duchene (25), Tyler Seguin (17)NSH 2 – 1 DAL · DAL 11% → 29% +17DAL 11% → 29%+17 pts
- P33:41Ryan O'Reilly Goal (16) Snap Shot, assists: Filip Forsberg (25)NSH 3 – 1 DAL · NSH 73% → 91% +17NSH 73% → 91%+17 pts
- P38:11Wyatt Johnston Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Nils Lundkvist (12), Thomas Harley (11)NSH 3 – 2 DAL · DAL 6% → 23% +17DAL 6% → 23%+17 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Stars 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL 60%
- Fair odds
- DAL -128
- NSH +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NSH 3.0 – 3.3 DAL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NSH | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1500 | 1525 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −13 | −1 | NSH: Kevin Lankinen: team allows 0.32 more goals than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · DAL: Jake Oettinger: team allows 0.02 more goals than with its usual starter (≈17 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +72 Elo | DAL 60.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 56.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NSH | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 313.1 | Goals scored | 3.72nd of 31 |
| 15th of 313.1 | Goals allowed | 3.113th of 31 |
| 16th of 310.0 | Margin | +0.73rd of 31 |
| 18th of 3149.8% | Shot share | 50.5%16th of 31 |
| 14th of 3190.4% | Save percentage | 90.1%18th of 31 |
| 18th of 314–6 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 31 |
| 8th of 3110–8 | Road vs home | 12–912th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NSH 1–1 DAL in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 2.