Detroit Red Wings at Carolina Hurricanes, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CAR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Wings- J.T. CompherGoals1
- Daniel SprongAssists1
- J.T. CompherPoints1
Hurricanes- Martin NecasGoals1
- Martin NecasAssists1
- Sebastian AhoPoints2
Scoring summary
- P318:44Sebastian Aho Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Martin Necas (18), Andrei Svechnikov (19)2–4
- P310:46Andrei Svechnikov Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Michael Bunting (20), Sebastian Aho (34)2–3
- P219:17J.T. Compher Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Dylan Larkin (22), Shayne Gostisbehere (24)2–2
- P216:25Martin Necas Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Michael Bunting (19), Dmitry Orlov (14)1–2
- P13:14Jordan Martinook Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: Brent Burns (18), Jordan Staal (9)1–1
- P12:27Klim Kostin Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Joe Veleno (10), Daniel Sprong (18)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P12:27Klim Kostin Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Joe Veleno (10), Daniel Sprong (18)DET 1 – 0 CAR · DET 45% → 60% +15DET 45% → 60%+15 pts
- P13:14Jordan Martinook Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: Brent Burns (18), Jordan Staal (9)DET 1 – 1 CAR · CAR 40% → 55% +15CAR 40% → 55%+15 pts
- P216:25Martin Necas Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Michael Bunting (19), Dmitry Orlov (14)DET 1 – 2 CAR · CAR 53% → 74% +21CAR 53% → 74%+21 pts
- P219:17J.T. Compher Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Dylan Larkin (22), Shayne Gostisbehere (24)DET 2 – 2 CAR · DET 25% → 47% +23DET 25% → 47%+23 pts
- P310:46Andrei Svechnikov Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Michael Bunting (20), Sebastian Aho (34)DET 2 – 3 CAR · CAR 52% → 84% +32CAR 52% → 84%+32 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Hurricanes 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CAR 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CAR 53%
- Fair odds
- CAR -121
- DET +121 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 3.0 – 3.2 CAR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | CAR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1511 | 1523 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +10 | −16 | DET: Alex Lyon: team allows 0.24 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈13 weighted starts) · CAR: Antti Raanta: team allows 0.40 more goals than with its usual starter (≈14 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CAR +22 Elo | CAR 53.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CAR 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CAR 54.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| DET | Stat | CAR |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 313.6 | Goals scored | 3.48th of 31 |
| 21st of 313.3 | Goals allowed | 3.114th of 31 |
| 14th of 31+0.3 | Margin | +0.410th of 31 |
| 24th of 3147.5% | Shot share | 56.5%1st of 31 |
| 16th of 3190.3% | Save percentage | 88.7%30th of 31 |
| 3rd of 317–3 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 31 |
| 7th of 3112–9 | Road vs home | 12–810th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
DET 0–1 CAR in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.