Detroit Red Wings at Toronto Maple Leafs, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TOR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Wings- Dylan LarkinGoals1
- Dylan LarkinAssists1
- Dylan LarkinPoints2
Maple Leafs- Pontus HolmbergGoals1
- Tyler BertuzziAssists1
- Mitch MarnerPoints1
Scoring summary
- P319:41Lucas Raymond Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Ben Chiarot (9), Dylan Larkin (21)4–2
- P318:20Andrew Copp Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Michael Rasmussen (9)3–2
- P32:46Daniel Sprong Goal (11) Backhand, assists: Alex DeBrincat (23)2–2
- P218:18Mitchell Marner Goal (18) Tip-In, assists: Tyler Bertuzzi (13), Jake McCabe (13)1–2
- P215:39Dylan Larkin Goal (17) Snap Shot, assists: David Perron (10)1–1
- P20:32Pontus Holmberg Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Morgan Rielly (28)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P20:32Pontus Holmberg Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Morgan Rielly (28)DET 0 – 1 TOR · TOR 54% → 71% +17TOR 54% → 71%+17 pts
- P215:39Dylan Larkin Goal (17) Snap Shot, assists: David Perron (10)DET 1 – 1 TOR · DET 26% → 47% +21DET 26% → 47%+21 pts
- P218:18Mitchell Marner Goal (18) Tip-In, assists: Tyler Bertuzzi (13), Jake McCabe (13)DET 1 – 2 TOR · TOR 53% → 75% +22TOR 53% → 75%+22 pts
- P32:46Daniel Sprong Goal (11) Backhand, assists: Alex DeBrincat (23)DET 2 – 2 TOR · DET 23% → 47% +25DET 23% → 47%+25 pts
- P318:20Andrew Copp Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Michael Rasmussen (9)DET 3 – 2 TOR · DET 49% → 98% +49DET 49% → 98%+49 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Maple Leafs 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 54%
- Fair odds
- TOR -122
- DET +122 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 3.0 – 3.3 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1504 | 1507 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | −30 | TOR and DET on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −28 | −35 | DET: James Reimer: team allows 0.69 more goals than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · TOR: Ilya Samsonov: team allows 0.89 more goals than with its usual starter (≈13 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +30 Elo | TOR 54.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 54.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| DET | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 313.6 | Goals scored | 3.64th of 31 |
| 21st of 313.4 | Goals allowed | 3.319th of 31 |
| 14th of 31+0.2 | Margin | +0.411th of 31 |
| 24th of 3147.6% | Shot share | 51.6%8th of 31 |
| 18th of 3190.2% | Save percentage | 90.2%16th of 31 |
| 8th of 316–4 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 31 |
| 13th of 3110–9 | Road vs home | 10–1016th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
DET 0–1 TOR in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.