Detroit Red Wings at Florida Panthers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors FLA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Wings- Michael RasmussenGoals1
- Olli MaattaAssists2
- Michael RasmussenPoints2
Panthers- Sam ReinhartGoals1
- Sam BennettAssists1
- Sam ReinhartPoints1
Scoring summary
- OT1:09Dylan Larkin Goal (18) Snap Shot, assists: Shayne Gostisbehere (23), David Perron (11)3–2
- P36:15Robby Fabbri Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Michael Rasmussen (10), Olli Maatta (9)2–2
- P211:56Gustav Forsling Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Sam Bennett (8)1–2
- P211:40Michael Rasmussen Goal (10) Tip-In, assists: Olli Maatta (8), Andrew Copp (14)1–1
- P25:38Sam Reinhart Goal (33) Snap Shot, assists: Anton Lundell (12), Dmitry Kulikov (11)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P25:38Sam Reinhart Goal (33) Snap Shot, assists: Anton Lundell (12), Dmitry Kulikov (11)DET 0 – 1 FLA · FLA 54% → 72% +18FLA 54% → 72%+18 pts
- P211:40Michael Rasmussen Goal (10) Tip-In, assists: Olli Maatta (8), Andrew Copp (14)DET 1 – 1 FLA · DET 27% → 46% +20DET 27% → 46%+20 pts
- P211:56Gustav Forsling Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Sam Bennett (8)DET 1 – 2 FLA · FLA 54% → 73% +20FLA 54% → 73%+20 pts
- P36:15Robby Fabbri Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Michael Rasmussen (10), Olli Maatta (9)DET 2 – 2 FLA · DET 20% → 47% +27DET 20% → 47%+27 pts
- OT1:09Dylan Larkin Goal (18) Snap Shot, assists: Shayne Gostisbehere (23), David Perron (11)DET 3 – 2 FLA · DET 49% → 92% +43DET 49% → 92%+43 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Panthers 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- FLA 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- FLA 57%
- Fair odds
- FLA -124
- DET +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 2.9 – 3.3 FLA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | FLA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1508 | 1529 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +9 | +1 | DET: Alex Lyon: team allows 0.22 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈12 weighted starts) · FLA: Sergei Bobrovsky: team allows 0.02 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈23 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | FLA +48 Elo | FLA 56.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | FLA 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | FLA 55.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| DET | Stat | FLA |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 313.6 | Goals scored | 3.116th of 31 |
| 22nd of 313.3 | Goals allowed | 2.64th of 31 |
| 14th of 31+0.3 | Margin | +0.57th of 31 |
| 24th of 3147.5% | Shot share | 55.7%2nd of 31 |
| 17th of 3190.2% | Save percentage | 91.1%7th of 31 |
| 9th of 316–4 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 31 |
| 11th of 3111–9 | Road vs home | 13–77th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
DET 0–1 FLA in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.