Minnesota Wild at Florida Panthers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors FLA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Wild- Kirill KaprizovGoals2
- Brock FaberAssists2
- Kirill KaprizovPoints3
Panthers- Aaron EkbladGoals1
- Aaron EkbladAssists3
- Aaron EkbladPoints4
Scoring summary
- P319:48Ryan Hartman Goal (15) Slap Shot, assists: none6–4
- P38:23Gustav Forsling Goal (7) Slap Shot, assists: Aaron Ekblad (11)5–4
- P38:05Anton Lundell Goal (3) Backhand, assists: Aaron Ekblad (10), Sam Reinhart (24)5–3
- P30:41Kirill Kaprizov Goal (15) Slap Shot, assists: Mats Zuccarello (27), Brock Faber (22)5–2
- P218:27Eetu Luostarinen Goal (8) Backhand, assists: Anton Lundell (13), Aaron Ekblad (9)4–2
- P210:32Mats Zuccarello Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Joel Eriksson Ek (15), Kirill Kaprizov (24)4–1
- P27:36Brock Faber Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Matt Boldy (15), Joel Eriksson Ek (14)3–1
- P23:22Ryan Hartman Goal (14) Slap Shot, assists: Alex Goligoski (8), Pat Maroon (11)2–1
- P20:35Aaron Ekblad Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Matthew Tkachuk (31), Carter Verhaeghe (21)1–1
- P12:49Kirill Kaprizov Goal (14) Tip-In, assists: Matt Boldy (14), Brock Faber (21)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P12:49Kirill Kaprizov Goal (14) Tip-In, assists: Matt Boldy (14), Brock Faber (21)MIN 1 – 0 FLA · MIN 40% → 55% +15MIN 40% → 55%+15 pts
- P20:35Aaron Ekblad Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Matthew Tkachuk (31), Carter Verhaeghe (21)MIN 1 – 1 FLA · FLA 41% → 59% +18FLA 41% → 59%+18 pts
- P23:22Ryan Hartman Goal (14) Slap Shot, assists: Alex Goligoski (8), Pat Maroon (11)MIN 2 – 1 FLA · MIN 42% → 60% +18MIN 42% → 60%+18 pts
- P27:36Brock Faber Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Matt Boldy (15), Joel Eriksson Ek (14)MIN 3 – 1 FLA · MIN 62% → 79% +17MIN 62% → 79%+17 pts
- P38:23Gustav Forsling Goal (7) Slap Shot, assists: Aaron Ekblad (11)MIN 5 – 4 FLA · FLA 6% → 24% +18FLA 6% → 24%+18 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Panthers 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- FLA 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- FLA 65%
- Fair odds
- FLA -153
- MIN +153 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 2.8 – 3.4 FLA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | FLA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1480 | 1526 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | MIN on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | 0 | 0 | MIN: Marc-Andre Fleury: team allows 0.00 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈16 weighted starts) · FLA: Sergei Bobrovsky: team allows 0.01 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈24 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | FLA +111 Elo | FLA 65.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | FLA 59.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | FLA 60.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| MIN | Stat | FLA |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 313.0 | Goals scored | 3.115th of 31 |
| 22nd of 313.4 | Goals allowed | 2.64th of 31 |
| 25th of 31−0.4 | Margin | +0.58th of 31 |
| 17th of 3150.0% | Shot share | 55.6%2nd of 31 |
| 27th of 3189.4% | Save percentage | 91.0%8th of 31 |
| 27th of 312–8 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 31 |
| 26th of 317–13 | Road vs home | 13–89th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIN 1–0 FLA in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.