Colorado Avalanche at Philadelphia Flyers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Avalanche- Logan O'ConnorGoals3
- Ross ColtonAssists3
- Nathan MacKinnonPoints4
Flyers- Cam AtkinsonGoals1
- Cam AtkinsonAssists2
- Cam AtkinsonPoints3
Scoring summary
- P319:39Logan O'Connor Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (51), Devon Toews (21)7–4
- P312:23Mikko Rantanen Goal (26) Wrist Shot, assists: Cale Makar (44), Jonathan Drouin (16)6–4
- P38:11Cam Atkinson Goal (12) Tip-In, assists: Rasmus Ristolainen (3), Noah Cates (4)5–4
- P35:26Tyson Foerster Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Morgan Frost (13), Cam Atkinson (13)5–3
- P217:05Nathan MacKinnon Goal (26) Wrist Shot, assists: Josh Manson (11), Joel Kiviranta (5)5–2
- P212:23Travis Konecny Goal (22) Wrist Shot, assists: Owen Tippett (12), Ryan Poehling (9)4–2
- P28:14Logan O'Connor Goal (10) Tip-In, assists: Miles Wood (9), Ross Colton (13)4–1
- P21:49Joel Farabee Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Morgan Frost (12), Cam Atkinson (12)3–1
- P20:43Nathan MacKinnon Goal (25) Wrist Shot, assists: Miles Wood (8), Josh Manson (10)3–0
- P118:36Mikko Rantanen Goal (25) Snap Shot, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (50), Ross Colton (12)2–0
- P19:58Logan O'Connor Goal (9) Deflected, assists: Ross Colton (11), Sam Malinski (7)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P19:58Logan O'Connor Goal (9) Deflected, assists: Ross Colton (11), Sam Malinski (7)COL 1 – 0 PHI · COL 46% → 62% +16COL 46% → 62%+16 pts
- P118:36Mikko Rantanen Goal (25) Snap Shot, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (50), Ross Colton (12)COL 2 – 0 PHI · COL 64% → 78% +15COL 64% → 78%+15 pts
- P20:43Nathan MacKinnon Goal (25) Wrist Shot, assists: Miles Wood (8), Josh Manson (10)COL 3 – 0 PHI · COL 79% → 90% +11COL 79% → 90%+11 pts
- P38:11Cam Atkinson Goal (12) Tip-In, assists: Rasmus Ristolainen (3), Noah Cates (4)COL 5 – 4 PHI · PHI 6% → 22% +16PHI 6% → 22%+16 pts
- P312:23Mikko Rantanen Goal (26) Wrist Shot, assists: Cale Makar (44), Jonathan Drouin (16)COL 6 – 4 PHI · COL 84% → 98% +14COL 84% → 98%+14 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Flyers 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 52%
- Fair odds
- PHI -119
- COL +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 3.0 – 3.2 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1536 | 1519 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | 0 | −4 | COL: Alexandar Georgiev: team allows 0.01 more goals than with its usual starter (≈25 weighted starts) · PHI: Carter Hart: team allows 0.11 more goals than with its usual starter (≈19 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +14 Elo | PHI 52.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 54.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| COL | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 313.7 | Goals scored | 3.022nd of 31 |
| 16th of 313.2 | Goals allowed | 2.78th of 31 |
| 6th of 31+0.6 | Margin | +0.314th of 31 |
| 6th of 3152.8% | Shot share | 54.3%5th of 31 |
| 24th of 3189.6% | Save percentage | 90.9%10th of 31 |
| 4th of 317–3 | Last 10 | 6–410th of 31 |
| 13th of 3111–10 | Road vs home | 11–1016th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
COL 0–1 PHI in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.