Dallas Stars at Philadelphia Flyers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Stars- Tyler SeguinGoals1
- Matt DucheneAssists1
- Tyler SeguinPoints1
Flyers- Owen TippettGoals2
- Morgan FrostAssists2
- Owen TippettPoints2
Scoring summary
- P314:30Owen Tippett Goal (18) Backhand, assists: none1–5
- P39:16Scott Laughton Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: none1–4
- P30:44Cam Atkinson Goal (11) Batted, assists: Morgan Frost (11), Travis Sanheim (22)1–3
- P212:42Tyler Seguin Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Matt Duchene (26)1–2
- P23:03Owen Tippett Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Sean Couturier (20)0–2
- P119:00Sean Walker Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Morgan Frost (10), Joel Farabee (20)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P119:00Sean Walker Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Morgan Frost (10), Joel Farabee (20)DAL 0 – 1 PHI · PHI 54% → 71% +17PHI 54% → 71%+17 pts
- P23:03Owen Tippett Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Sean Couturier (20)DAL 0 – 2 PHI · PHI 71% → 85% +13PHI 71% → 85%+13 pts
- P212:42Tyler Seguin Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Matt Duchene (26)DAL 1 – 2 PHI · DAL 12% → 27% +14DAL 12% → 27%+14 pts
- P30:44Cam Atkinson Goal (11) Batted, assists: Morgan Frost (11), Travis Sanheim (22)DAL 1 – 3 PHI · PHI 76% → 91% +15PHI 76% → 91%+15 pts
- P39:16Scott Laughton Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: noneDAL 1 – 4 PHI · PHI 96% → >99% +3PHI 96% → >99%+3 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Flyers 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 55%
- Fair odds
- PHI -122
- DAL +122 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 3.0 – 3.2 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1527 | 1515 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −1 | +12 | DAL: Jake Oettinger: team allows 0.02 more goals than with its usual starter (≈18 weighted starts) · PHI: Samuel Ersson: team allows 0.30 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈15 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +36 Elo | PHI 55.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 55.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| DAL | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 313.7 | Goals scored | 2.924th of 31 |
| 13th of 313.0 | Goals allowed | 2.88th of 31 |
| 4th of 31+0.7 | Margin | +0.215th of 31 |
| 18th of 3150.0% | Shot share | 53.9%5th of 31 |
| 15th of 3190.4% | Save percentage | 90.9%12th of 31 |
| 10th of 316–4 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 31 |
| 2nd of 3112–7 | Road vs home | 10–1018th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
DAL 1–0 PHI in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.