Dallas Stars at Chicago Blackhawks, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Stars- Joe PavelskiGoals1
- Roope HintzAssists2
- Roope HintzPoints2
Blackhawks- Zach SanfordAssists1
- Zach SanfordPoints1
Scoring summary
- P319:37Joe Pavelski Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Roope Hintz (21), Jamie Benn (19)3–1
- P314:54Mason Marchment Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Evgenii Dadonov (9), Joel Hanley (3)2–1
- P32:32Matt Duchene Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: Roope Hintz (20), Jason Robertson (28)1–1
- P212:56Boris Katchouk Goal (4) Backhand, assists: Zachary Sanford (4)0–1
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P212:56Boris Katchouk Goal (4) Backhand, assists: Zachary Sanford (4)DAL 0 – 1 CHI · CHI 55% → 75% +20CHI 55% → 75%+20 pts
- P32:32Matt Duchene Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: Roope Hintz (20), Jason Robertson (28)DAL 1 – 1 CHI · DAL 22% → 46% +24DAL 22% → 46%+24 pts
- P314:54Mason Marchment Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Evgenii Dadonov (9), Joel Hanley (3)DAL 2 – 1 CHI · DAL 48% → 88% +41DAL 48% → 88%+41 pts
- P319:37Joe Pavelski Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Roope Hintz (21), Jamie Benn (19)DAL 3 – 1 CHI · DAL >99% → 100% +0DAL >99% → 100%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Blackhawks 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CHI 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHI 49%
- Fair odds
- CHI -134
- DAL +134 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 2.9 – 3.3 CHI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1519 | 1442 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | DAL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −2 | +3 | DAL: Scott Wedgewood: team allows 0.04 more goals than with its usual starter (≈15 weighted starts) · CHI: Petr Mrazek: team allows 0.07 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈20 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +8 Elo | DAL 51.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHI 59.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHI 57.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| DAL | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 313.7 | Goals scored | 2.330th of 31 |
| 17th of 313.1 | Goals allowed | 3.628th of 31 |
| 5th of 31+0.6 | Margin | −1.330th of 31 |
| 16th of 3150.2% | Shot share | 44.4%30th of 31 |
| 18th of 3190.0% | Save percentage | 89.6%24th of 31 |
| 13th of 315–5 | Last 10 | 2–827th of 31 |
| 4th of 3111–7 | Road vs home | 8–1124th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
DAL 2–0 CHI in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.