Los Angeles Kings at Dallas Stars, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kings- Drew DoughtyGoals1
- Phillip DanaultAssists1
- Drew DoughtyPoints1
Stars- Evgenii DadonovGoals1
- Jason RobertsonAssists2
- Evgenii DadonovPoints2
Scoring summary
- P39:33Sam Steel Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Radek Faksa (6)1–5
- P36:52Joe Pavelski Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Thomas Harley (12), Evgenii Dadonov (10)1–4
- P35:49Wyatt Johnston Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Roope Hintz (22), Jason Robertson (30)1–3
- P21:31Drew Doughty Goal (9) Slap Shot, assists: Phillip Danault (19), Adrian Kempe (23)1–2
- P115:21Evgenii Dadonov Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Craig Smith (3), Esa Lindell (15)0–2
- P19:21Roope Hintz Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Wyatt Johnston (14), Jason Robertson (29)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P19:21Roope Hintz Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Wyatt Johnston (14), Jason Robertson (29)LA 0 – 1 DAL · DAL 59% → 73% +14DAL 59% → 73%+14 pts
- P115:21Evgenii Dadonov Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Craig Smith (3), Esa Lindell (15)LA 0 – 2 DAL · DAL 74% → 85% +12DAL 74% → 85%+12 pts
- P21:31Drew Doughty Goal (9) Slap Shot, assists: Phillip Danault (19), Adrian Kempe (23)LA 1 – 2 DAL · LA 13% → 26% +12LA 13% → 26%+12 pts
- P35:49Wyatt Johnston Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Roope Hintz (22), Jason Robertson (30)LA 1 – 3 DAL · DAL 81% → 95% +14DAL 81% → 95%+14 pts
- P36:52Joe Pavelski Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Thomas Harley (12), Evgenii Dadonov (10)LA 1 – 4 DAL · DAL 95% → >99% +4DAL 95% → >99%+4 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Stars 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL 61%
- Fair odds
- DAL -147
- LA +147 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LA 2.9 – 3.4 DAL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LA | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1511 | 1523 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | LA on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −2 | −5 | LA: Cam Talbot: team allows 0.06 more goals than with its usual starter (≈22 weighted starts) · DAL: Jake Oettinger: team allows 0.13 more goals than with its usual starter (≈17 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +74 Elo | DAL 60.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 59.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 59.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| LA | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 313.2 | Goals scored | 3.73rd of 31 |
| 3rd of 312.6 | Goals allowed | 3.115th of 31 |
| 5th of 31+0.6 | Margin | +0.66th of 31 |
| 3rd of 3155.2% | Shot share | 50.1%18th of 31 |
| 6th of 3191.3% | Save percentage | 90.2%17th of 31 |
| 29th of 312–8 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 31 |
| 2nd of 3112–7 | Road vs home | 12–1014th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.