St. Louis Blues at Vancouver Canucks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors VAN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blues- Jake NeighboursGoals1
- Robert ThomasAssists2
- Jake NeighboursPoints2
Canucks- Pius SuterGoals3
- Brock BoeserAssists2
- Pius SuterPoints3
Scoring summary
- OT1:54Brayden Schenn Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Nick Leddy (15)4–3
- P319:08Pius Suter Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: J.T. Miller (43), Quinn Hughes (47)3–3
- P35:42Pius Suter Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Brock Boeser (21)3–2
- P31:41Alexey Toropchenko Goal (7) Tip-In, assists: Kevin Hayes (11), Nathan Walker (1)3–1
- P31:00Pius Suter Goal (10) Backhand, assists: Brock Boeser (20), Quinn Hughes (46)2–1
- P114:57Pavel Buchnevich Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Jake Neighbours (4), Robert Thomas (33)2–0
- P113:14Jake Neighbours Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Robert Thomas (32)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P31:00Pius Suter Goal (10) Backhand, assists: Brock Boeser (20), Quinn Hughes (46)STL 2 – 1 VAN · VAN 13% → 31% +18VAN 13% → 31%+18 pts
- P31:41Alexey Toropchenko Goal (7) Tip-In, assists: Kevin Hayes (11), Nathan Walker (1)STL 3 – 1 VAN · STL 69% → 88% +18STL 69% → 88%+18 pts
- P35:42Pius Suter Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Brock Boeser (21)STL 3 – 2 VAN · VAN 9% → 27% +18VAN 9% → 27%+18 pts
- P319:08Pius Suter Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: J.T. Miller (43), Quinn Hughes (47)STL 3 – 3 VAN · VAN <1% → 51% +51VAN <1% → 51%+51 pts
- OT1:54Brayden Schenn Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Nick Leddy (15)STL 4 – 3 VAN · STL 47% → 94% +46STL 47% → 94%+46 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Canucks 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- VAN 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- VAN 68%
- Fair odds
- VAN -156
- STL +156 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 2.8 – 3.4 VAN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | VAN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1494 | 1557 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | STL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −7 | −8 | STL: Joel Hofer: team allows 0.17 more goals than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · VAN: Casey DeSmith: team allows 0.19 more goals than with its usual starter (≈12 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VAN +127 Elo | VAN 67.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | VAN 59.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | VAN 61.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| STL | Stat | VAN |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 312.9 | Goals scored | 3.82nd of 31 |
| 16th of 313.1 | Goals allowed | 2.62nd of 31 |
| 23rd of 31−0.2 | Margin | +1.31st of 31 |
| 23rd of 3147.7% | Shot share | 47.9%22nd of 31 |
| 7th of 3191.1% | Save percentage | 91.9%2nd of 31 |
| 15th of 315–5 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 31 |
| 25th of 318–12 | Road vs home | 16–52nd of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
STL 1–1 VAN in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.