Chicago Blackhawks at Vancouver Canucks, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors VAN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blackhawks
Canucks- Pius SuterGoals1
- Ilya MikheyevAssists1
- Pius SuterPoints1
Scoring summary
- P16:40Quinn Hughes Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Ilya Mikheyev (13), Andrei Kuzmenko (13)0–2
- P11:47Pius Suter Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Andrei Kuzmenko (12), Noah Juulsen (3)0–1
Turning points
The 2 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P11:47Pius Suter Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Andrei Kuzmenko (12), Noah Juulsen (3)CHI 0 – 1 VAN · VAN 58% → 72% +14VAN 58% → 72%+14 pts
- P16:40Quinn Hughes Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Ilya Mikheyev (13), Andrei Kuzmenko (13)CHI 0 – 2 VAN · VAN 72% → 83% +11VAN 72% → 83%+11 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Canucks 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- VAN 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- VAN 70%
- Fair odds
- VAN -139
- CHI +139 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHI 2.9 – 3.3 VAN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | VAN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1440 | 1555 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +7 | +2 | CHI: Petr Mrazek: team allows 0.18 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈22 weighted starts) · VAN: Thatcher Demko: team allows 0.05 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈24 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VAN +144 Elo | VAN 69.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | VAN 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | VAN 58.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CHI | Stat | VAN |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 312.3 | Goals scored | 3.91st of 31 |
| 24th of 313.5 | Goals allowed | 2.64th of 31 |
| 30th of 31−1.2 | Margin | +1.21st of 31 |
| 30th of 3144.4% | Shot share | 47.9%22nd of 31 |
| 21st of 3189.9% | Save percentage | 91.7%3rd of 31 |
| 25th of 313–7 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 31 |
| 30th of 314–19 | Road vs home | 15–52nd of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CHI 0–1 VAN in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.