Chicago Blackhawks at Buffalo Sabres, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BUF; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blackhawks
Sabres- Zemgus GirgensonsGoals1
- Ryan JohnsonAssists2
- Ryan JohnsonPoints2
Scoring summary
- P36:06Rasmus Dahlin Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Casey Mittelstadt (27), Alex Tuch (19)0–3
- P32:57JJ Peterka Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Johnson (5), Jack Quinn (4)0–2
- P212:27Zemgus Girgensons Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Ryan Johnson (4), Peyton Krebs (5)0–1
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P212:27Zemgus Girgensons Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Ryan Johnson (4), Peyton Krebs (5)CHI 0 – 1 BUF · BUF 55% → 75% +20BUF 55% → 75%+20 pts
- P32:57JJ Peterka Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Johnson (5), Jack Quinn (4)CHI 0 – 2 BUF · BUF 78% → 93% +15BUF 78% → 93%+15 pts
- P36:06Rasmus Dahlin Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Casey Mittelstadt (27), Alex Tuch (19)CHI 0 – 3 BUF · BUF 95% → >99% +5BUF 95% → >99%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Sabres 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BUF 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BUF 66%
- Fair odds
- BUF -134
- CHI +134 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHI 2.9 – 3.3 BUF
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | BUF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1440 | 1486 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −16 | +18 | CHI: Arvid Soderblom: team allows 0.40 more goals than with its usual starter (≈13 weighted starts) · BUF: Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen: team allows 0.45 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈15 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BUF +115 Elo | BUF 66.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BUF 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BUF 57.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CHI | Stat | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 312.3 | Goals scored | 3.022nd of 31 |
| 27th of 313.5 | Goals allowed | 3.321st of 31 |
| 30th of 31−1.2 | Margin | −0.323rd of 31 |
| 30th of 3144.5% | Shot share | 51.1%13th of 31 |
| 22nd of 3189.9% | Save percentage | 89.3%28th of 31 |
| 28th of 312–8 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 31 |
| 30th of 314–18 | Road vs home | 9–1224th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CHI 0–1 BUF in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.