San Jose Sharks at Buffalo Sabres, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BUF; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Sharks
Sabres- Jordan GreenwayGoals1
- Rasmus DahlinAssists1
- Alex TuchPoints1
Scoring summary
- P316:34Jordan Greenway Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Casey Mittelstadt (26), Rasmus Dahlin (23)0–3
- P214:37Alex Tuch Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Jack Quinn (3), Casey Mittelstadt (25)0–2
- P211:34Casey Mittelstadt Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Kyle Okposo (7), Ryan Johnson (3)0–1
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P211:34Casey Mittelstadt Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Kyle Okposo (7), Ryan Johnson (3)SJ 0 – 1 BUF · BUF 55% → 75% +19BUF 55% → 75%+19 pts
- P214:37Alex Tuch Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Jack Quinn (3), Casey Mittelstadt (25)SJ 0 – 2 BUF · BUF 75% → 89% +14BUF 75% → 89%+14 pts
- P316:34Jordan Greenway Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Casey Mittelstadt (26), Rasmus Dahlin (23)SJ 0 – 3 BUF · BUF >99% → >99% +0BUF >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Sabres 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BUF 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BUF 67%
- Fair odds
- BUF -135
- SJ +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SJ 2.9 – 3.3 BUF
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SJ | BUF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1425 | 1483 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −14 | +14 | SJ: Kaapo Kahkonen: team allows 0.34 more goals than with its usual starter (≈14 weighted starts) · BUF: Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen: team allows 0.35 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈15 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BUF +122 Elo | BUF 66.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BUF 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BUF 57.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| SJ | Stat | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| 31st of 312.1 | Goals scored | 3.022nd of 31 |
| 31st of 314.2 | Goals allowed | 3.422nd of 31 |
| 31st of 31−2.1 | Margin | −0.423rd of 31 |
| 31st of 3141.2% | Shot share | 51.0%14th of 31 |
| 27th of 3189.1% | Save percentage | 89.0%28th of 31 |
| 31st of 311–9 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 31 |
| 30th of 314–18 | Road vs home | 8–1225th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.