Vancouver Canucks at Buffalo Sabres, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each period. Above the line favors BUF.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Canucks- Sam LaffertyGoals1
- Nikita ZadorovAssists1
- Sam LaffertyPoints1
SabresScoring summary
- P22:05Sam Lafferty Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Nikita Zadorov (8)1–0
Turning points
The play that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P22:05Sam Lafferty Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Nikita Zadorov (8)VAN 1 – 0 BUF · VAN 47% → 65% +18VAN 47% → 65%+18 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Sabres 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BUF 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BUF 47%
- Fair odds
- BUF -115
- VAN +115 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- VAN 3.0 – 3.2 BUF
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | VAN | BUF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1553 | 1486 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | 0 | +11 | VAN: Thatcher Demko: team allows 0.00 more goals than with its usual starter (≈23 weighted starts) · BUF: Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen: team allows 0.28 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈14 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VAN +20 Elo | VAN 52.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BUF 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BUF 53.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| VAN | Stat | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 313.9 | Goals scored | 3.021st of 31 |
| 4th of 312.6 | Goals allowed | 3.522nd of 31 |
| 1st of 31+1.3 | Margin | −0.423rd of 31 |
| 22nd of 3148.6% | Shot share | 51.0%12th of 31 |
| 3rd of 3191.5% | Save percentage | 88.9%28th of 31 |
| 6th of 317–3 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 31 |
| 5th of 3114–9 | Road vs home | 8–1124th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.