San Jose Sharks at Chicago Blackhawks, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Sharks- Ryan CarpenterGoals1
- Mike HoffmanAssists1
- Ryan CarpenterPoints1
Blackhawks- Cole GuttmanGoals1
- Ryan DonatoAssists1
- Cole GuttmanPoints1
Scoring summary
- SO0:00Boris Katchouk Goal Backhand1–2
- SO0:00Rem Pitlick Goal Wrist Shot1–2
- SO0:00Kevin Labanc Goal Wrist Shot1–2
- P35:13Ryan Carpenter Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Justin Bailey (5), Mike Hoffman (7)1–1
- P110:41Cole Guttman Goal (4) Between Legs, assists: Ryan Donato (8), Kevin Korchinski (7)0–1
Turning points
The 2 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P110:41Cole Guttman Goal (4) Between Legs, assists: Ryan Donato (8), Kevin Korchinski (7)SJ 0 – 1 CHI · CHI 55% → 70% +15CHI 55% → 70%+15 pts
- P35:13Ryan Carpenter Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Justin Bailey (5), Mike Hoffman (7)SJ 1 – 1 CHI · SJ 21% → 47% +26SJ 21% → 47%+26 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Blackhawks 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CHI 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHI 58%
- Fair odds
- CHI -125
- SJ +125 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SJ 2.9 – 3.2 CHI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SJ | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1422 | 1438 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +2 | +3 | SJ: Mackenzie Blackwood: team allows 0.04 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈19 weighted starts) · CHI: Petr Mrazek: team allows 0.08 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈21 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHI +53 Elo | CHI 57.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHI 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHI 55.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| SJ | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 31st of 312.0 | Goals scored | 2.330th of 31 |
| 31st of 314.2 | Goals allowed | 3.628th of 31 |
| 31st of 31−2.1 | Margin | −1.330th of 31 |
| 31st of 3141.3% | Shot share | 44.7%30th of 31 |
| 28th of 3189.2% | Save percentage | 89.7%24th of 31 |
| 30th of 311–9 | Last 10 | 2–828th of 31 |
| 31st of 314–19 | Road vs home | 8–1226th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.