New York Islanders at Chicago Blackhawks, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Islanders- Kyle PalmieriGoals1
- Noah DobsonAssists2
- Kyle PalmieriPoints2
Blackhawks- Jason DickinsonGoals1
- Jason DickinsonAssists2
- Jason DickinsonPoints3
Scoring summary
- OT0:22Seth Jones Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Boris Katchouk (4), Jason Dickinson (9)3–4
- P312:50Kyle Palmieri Goal (11) Wrap-around, assists: Noah Dobson (39), Alexander Romanov (7)3–3
- P36:38Bo Horvat Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Mathew Barzal (34), Noah Dobson (38)2–3
- P35:10Jason Dickinson Goal (15) Snap Shot, assists: Joey Anderson (6), Seth Jones (12)1–3
- P219:14Joey Anderson Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Colin Blackwell (3), Jason Dickinson (8)1–2
- P218:07Boris Katchouk Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Zachary Sanford (5), Reese Johnson (1)1–1
- P16:09Brock Nelson Goal (20) Snap Shot, assists: Hudson Fasching (5), Kyle Palmieri (14)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P218:07Boris Katchouk Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Zachary Sanford (5), Reese Johnson (1)NYI 1 – 1 CHI · CHI 27% → 50% +23CHI 27% → 50%+23 pts
- P219:14Joey Anderson Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Colin Blackwell (3), Jason Dickinson (8)NYI 1 – 2 CHI · CHI 50% → 73% +23CHI 50% → 73%+23 pts
- P35:10Jason Dickinson Goal (15) Snap Shot, assists: Joey Anderson (6), Seth Jones (12)NYI 1 – 3 CHI · CHI 77% → 93% +16CHI 77% → 93%+16 pts
- P312:50Kyle Palmieri Goal (11) Wrap-around, assists: Noah Dobson (39), Alexander Romanov (7)NYI 3 – 3 CHI · NYI 15% → 50% +35NYI 15% → 50%+35 pts
- OT0:22Seth Jones Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Boris Katchouk (4), Jason Dickinson (9)NYI 3 – 4 CHI · CHI 50% → 91% +41CHI 50% → 91%+41 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Blackhawks 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CHI 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHI 48%
- Fair odds
- CHI -101
- NYI +101 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYI 3.1 – 3.1 CHI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYI | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1472 | 1437 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | — | −30 | CHI on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −7 | +8 | NYI: Ilya Sorokin: team allows 0.17 more goals than with its usual starter (≈22 weighted starts) · CHI: Petr Mrazek: team allows 0.19 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈22 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYI +15 Elo | NYI 52.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHI 50.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHI 50.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NYI | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 313.0 | Goals scored | 2.230th of 31 |
| 28th of 313.5 | Goals allowed | 3.527th of 31 |
| 26th of 31−0.6 | Margin | −1.330th of 31 |
| 29th of 3145.0% | Shot share | 44.4%30th of 31 |
| 10th of 3190.9% | Save percentage | 89.9%22nd of 31 |
| 28th of 312–8 | Last 10 | 2–828th of 31 |
| 27th of 317–14 | Road vs home | 9–1225th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.