New York Islanders at Winnipeg Jets, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WPG; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Islanders- Anders LeeGoals2
- Mike ReillyAssists1
- Anders LeePoints2
Jets- Kyle ConnorGoals1
- Dylan DeMeloAssists1
- Kyle ConnorPoints1
Scoring summary
- P318:38Kyle Connor Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: none2–4
- P30:35Anders Lee Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Bo Horvat (24)2–3
- P217:58Mason Appleton Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Dominic Toninato (4), Dylan DeMelo (13)1–3
- P215:19Neal Pionk Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Cole Perfetti (16), Nate Schmidt (6)1–2
- P115:53Anders Lee Goal (12) Tip-In, assists: Mike Reilly (6), Sebastian Aho (5)1–1
- P19:41Gabriel Vilardi Goal (11) Tip-In, assists: Adam Lowry (15), Josh Morrissey (26)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P19:41Gabriel Vilardi Goal (11) Tip-In, assists: Adam Lowry (15), Josh Morrissey (26)NYI 0 – 1 WPG · WPG 61% → 75% +14WPG 61% → 75%+14 pts
- P115:53Anders Lee Goal (12) Tip-In, assists: Mike Reilly (6), Sebastian Aho (5)NYI 1 – 1 WPG · NYI 25% → 40% +15NYI 25% → 40%+15 pts
- P215:19Neal Pionk Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Cole Perfetti (16), Nate Schmidt (6)NYI 1 – 2 WPG · WPG 58% → 78% +20WPG 58% → 78%+20 pts
- P217:58Mason Appleton Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Dominic Toninato (4), Dylan DeMelo (13)NYI 1 – 3 WPG · WPG 78% → 92% +13WPG 78% → 92%+13 pts
- P30:35Anders Lee Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Bo Horvat (24)NYI 2 – 3 WPG · NYI 7% → 21% +14NYI 7% → 21%+14 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Jets 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- WPG 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WPG 71%
- Fair odds
- WPG -161
- NYI +161 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYI 2.8 – 3.4 WPG
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYI | WPG | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1474 | 1540 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | NYI on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −7 | +15 | NYI: Ilya Sorokin: team allows 0.17 more goals than with its usual starter (≈22 weighted starts) · WPG: Connor Hellebuyck: team allows 0.37 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈22 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WPG +153 Elo | WPG 70.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WPG 59.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WPG 61.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NYI | Stat | WPG |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 313.0 | Goals scored | 3.215th of 31 |
| 27th of 313.5 | Goals allowed | 2.31st of 31 |
| 26th of 31−0.6 | Margin | +0.82nd of 31 |
| 29th of 3144.9% | Shot share | 51.4%12th of 31 |
| 12th of 3190.9% | Save percentage | 92.6%1st of 31 |
| 23rd of 313–7 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 31 |
| 27th of 317–13 | Road vs home | 14–87th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.