Toronto Maple Leafs at Vancouver Canucks, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors VAN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Maple Leafs- William NylanderGoals2
- Morgan RiellyAssists2
- William NylanderPoints2
Canucks- Conor GarlandGoals2
- Quinn HughesAssists3
- Conor GarlandPoints3
Scoring summary
- P310:42Elias Pettersson Goal (25) Tip-In, assists: J.T. Miller (42), Quinn Hughes (45)4–6
- P37:11J.T. Miller Goal (21) Deflected, assists: Quinn Hughes (44), Elias Pettersson (36)4–5
- P33:13Mitchell Marner Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: none4–4
- P219:00Conor Garland Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Teddy Blueger (16)3–4
- P28:19William Nylander Goal (23) Wrist Shot, assists: Morgan Rielly (30)3–3
- P27:26Jake McCabe Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Mitchell Marner (30), Auston Matthews (18)2–3
- P24:53William Nylander Goal (22) Wrist Shot, assists: Morgan Rielly (29), TJ Brodie (11)1–3
- P112:58Conor Garland Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Teddy Blueger (15), Dakota Joshua (11)0–3
- P16:00Nils Hoglander Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Nils Aman (4), Conor Garland (16)0–2
- P13:06Nils Hoglander Goal (13) Backhand, assists: Sam Lafferty (10), Quinn Hughes (43)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P13:06Nils Hoglander Goal (13) Backhand, assists: Sam Lafferty (10), Quinn Hughes (43)TOR 0 – 1 VAN · VAN 56% → 70% +14VAN 56% → 70%+14 pts
- P28:19William Nylander Goal (23) Wrist Shot, assists: Morgan Rielly (30)TOR 3 – 3 VAN · TOR 27% → 45% +19TOR 27% → 45%+19 pts
- P219:00Conor Garland Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Teddy Blueger (16)TOR 3 – 4 VAN · VAN 54% → 76% +22VAN 54% → 76%+22 pts
- P33:13Mitchell Marner Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: noneTOR 4 – 4 VAN · TOR 22% → 47% +25TOR 22% → 47%+25 pts
- P37:11J.T. Miller Goal (21) Deflected, assists: Quinn Hughes (44), Elias Pettersson (36)TOR 4 – 5 VAN · VAN 53% → 81% +28VAN 53% → 81%+28 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Canucks 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- VAN 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- VAN 62%
- Fair odds
- VAN -129
- TOR +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 2.9 – 3.3 VAN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | VAN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1502 | 1552 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +7 | +4 | TOR: Martin Jones: team allows 0.18 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈12 weighted starts) · VAN: Thatcher Demko: team allows 0.10 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈23 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VAN +82 Elo | VAN 61.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | VAN 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | VAN 56.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| TOR | Stat | VAN |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 313.6 | Goals scored | 3.81st of 31 |
| 20th of 313.3 | Goals allowed | 2.62nd of 31 |
| 13th of 31+0.3 | Margin | +1.21st of 31 |
| 9th of 3151.7% | Shot share | 48.3%22nd of 31 |
| 18th of 3190.1% | Save percentage | 91.8%3rd of 31 |
| 15th of 315–5 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 31 |
| 15th of 3110–10 | Road vs home | 14–53rd of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TOR 1–0 VAN in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.