Toronto Maple Leafs at Calgary Flames, NHL forecast
You didn't pick this one.
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CGY; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Maple Leafs- Auston MatthewsGoals3
- William NylanderAssists2
- Auston MatthewsPoints4
Flames- Nazem KadriGoals1
- Jonathan HuberdeauAssists2
- Jonathan HuberdeauPoints2
Scoring summary
- P217:53Andrew Mangiapane Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Mikael Backlund (15), Noah Hanifin (17)4–3
- P213:39Auston Matthews Goal (37) Backhand, assists: Matthew Knies (9), TJ Brodie (10)4–2
- P27:44Mitchell Marner Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: William Nylander (38), Auston Matthews (17)3–2
- P24:08Auston Matthews Goal (36) Wrist Shot, assists: William Nylander (37), Pontus Holmberg (6)2–2
- P118:24Auston Matthews Goal (35) Wrist Shot, assists: Noah Gregor (4), Bobby McMann (5)1–2
- P115:23Nazem Kadri Goal (16) Snap Shot, assists: Elias Lindholm (22), Jonathan Huberdeau (19)0–2
- P110:52Yegor Sharangovich Goal (19) Tip-In, assists: Rasmus Andersson (19), Jonathan Huberdeau (18)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P110:52Yegor Sharangovich Goal (19) Tip-In, assists: Rasmus Andersson (19), Jonathan Huberdeau (18)TOR 0 – 1 CGY · CGY 54% → 69% +15CGY 54% → 69%+15 pts
- P24:08Auston Matthews Goal (36) Wrist Shot, assists: William Nylander (37), Pontus Holmberg (6)TOR 2 – 2 CGY · TOR 29% → 47% +18TOR 29% → 47%+18 pts
- P27:44Mitchell Marner Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: William Nylander (38), Auston Matthews (17)TOR 3 – 2 CGY · TOR 47% → 66% +19TOR 47% → 66%+19 pts
- P213:39Auston Matthews Goal (37) Backhand, assists: Matthew Knies (9), TJ Brodie (10)TOR 4 – 2 CGY · TOR 68% → 85% +16TOR 68% → 85%+16 pts
- P217:53Andrew Mangiapane Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Mikael Backlund (15), Noah Hanifin (17)TOR 4 – 3 CGY · CGY 13% → 30% +17CGY 13% → 30%+17 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Flames 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CGY 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CGY 52%
- Fair odds
- CGY -120
- TOR +120 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 3.0 – 3.2 CGY
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | CGY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1499 | 1498 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +9 | −9 | TOR: Martin Jones: team allows 0.22 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈12 weighted starts) · CGY: Dan Vladar: team allows 0.24 more goals than with its usual starter (≈12 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CGY +16 Elo | CGY 52.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CGY 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CGY 54.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| TOR | Stat | CGY |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 313.6 | Goals scored | 3.118th of 31 |
| 20th of 313.3 | Goals allowed | 3.218th of 31 |
| 13th of 31+0.3 | Margin | −0.120th of 31 |
| 10th of 3151.6% | Shot share | 51.6%9th of 31 |
| 18th of 3190.2% | Save percentage | 90.0%19th of 31 |
| 19th of 314–6 | Last 10 | 6–410th of 31 |
| 18th of 319–10 | Road vs home | 10–814th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TOR 1–0 CGY in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.