Calgary Flames at Vegas Golden Knights, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors VGK; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Flames- Mikael BacklundGoals1
- Mikael BacklundAssists1
- Mikael BacklundPoints2
Golden Knights- Chandler StephensonGoals1
- Alec MartinezAssists1
- Chandler StephensonPoints1
Scoring summary
- P38:54Chandler Stephenson Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Mark Stone (29), Alec Martinez (3)3–1
- P217:09Mikael Backlund Goal (10) Backhand, assists: Andrew Mangiapane (17), Blake Coleman (18)3–0
- P113:04Nazem Kadri Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor Zary (13)2–0
- P111:06Blake Coleman Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Mikael Backlund (14), Rasmus Andersson (17)1–0
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P111:06Blake Coleman Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Mikael Backlund (14), Rasmus Andersson (17)CGY 1 – 0 VGK · CGY 45% → 61% +16CGY 45% → 61%+16 pts
- P113:04Nazem Kadri Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor Zary (13)CGY 2 – 0 VGK · CGY 61% → 76% +14CGY 61% → 76%+14 pts
- P217:09Mikael Backlund Goal (10) Backhand, assists: Andrew Mangiapane (17), Blake Coleman (18)CGY 3 – 0 VGK · CGY 86% → 95% +9CGY 86% → 95%+9 pts
- P38:54Chandler Stephenson Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Mark Stone (29), Alec Martinez (3)CGY 3 – 1 VGK · VGK <1% → 5% +4VGK <1% → 5%+4 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Golden Knights 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- VGK 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- VGK 57%
- Fair odds
- VGK -124
- CGY +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CGY 3.0 – 3.3 VGK
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CGY | VGK | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1494 | 1517 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +9 | +1 | CGY: Jacob Markstrom: team allows 0.23 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈19 weighted starts) · VGK: Logan Thompson: team allows 0.03 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈18 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VGK +50 Elo | VGK 57.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | VGK 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | VGK 55.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CGY | Stat | VGK |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 313.1 | Goals scored | 3.313th of 31 |
| 19th of 313.3 | Goals allowed | 2.87th of 31 |
| 20th of 31−0.2 | Margin | +0.59th of 31 |
| 8th of 3151.7% | Shot share | 51.0%14th of 31 |
| 19th of 3189.9% | Save percentage | 91.4%5th of 31 |
| 8th of 316–4 | Last 10 | 3–722nd of 31 |
| 27th of 318–14 | Road vs home | 15–52nd of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CGY 1–1 VGK in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.